The aim of the report is to contribute to the strategic planning debate by presenting the results of energy sector modelling conducted using the Zefir tool, developed at the National Centre for Nuclear Research and further advanced by Enercode in cooperation with Forum Energii. To illustrate potential development pathways and better understand the consequences of various investment and regulatory decisions, Forum Energii employed a model that simulates, on an hourly basis, the operation of an integrated energy system covering electricity, district heating, and individual heating.

“Zefir enables complex simulations and analyses of Poland’s energy transition in hourly time resolution, significantly accelerating data-driven decision-making. It allows for assessing the impact of investment delays or regulatory changes and identifying risks linked to low system flexibility and the lack of sectoral integration,” says Jędrzej Wójcik, Power Sector Programme Coordinator at Forum Energii.

Main takeaway—nearly two decades of investment ahead

The modelling results indicate that to build a modern and stable energy system, while also developing green hydrogen and electrifying heating and transport, Poland must invest substantially in new generation and storage capacities within this decade. By 2030, an additional 56 GW of new capacity may be needed, including 46 GW from renewable sources. In parallel, around 17 GW of storage capacity with a total energy capacity of 70 GWh may be required. By 2040, total new capacity could exceed 100 GW compared to current generation levels. This is an enormous challenge that requires removing administrative barriers, particularly for onshore wind, and supporting domestic production of key technologies such as energy storage systems and heat pumps. However, such a scale of investment also represents a major opportunity for the Polish economy, creating new supply chains, jobs, and space for innovation.

Forum Energii’s analysis suggests that from around 2035, coal could play only a marginal role in both the power and heating sectors. This scenario would allow for reducing subsidies to the mining industry by up to PLN 60 billion compared to the “With Additional Measures” (WAM) scenario presented in the NECP draft of October 2024.

Regardless of future fuel price relations, the model points to the need for about 10 GW of additional flexible gas-fired capacity, beyond the units that already hold capacity market contracts or are included in the NECP draft. Gas units may support the system during periods of low renewable generation, but they should not become its foundation. Instead, energy storage and demand-side flexibility mechanisms should serve as the main sources of flexibility and balancing capability, enabling safe and efficient absorption of growing renewable output. Such an approach will significantly reduce gas consumption in the power sector, which in the long term could be replaced by domestic biomethane. Implementing these investments will, however, require a reform of the capacity market.

Unlocking investment requires reform—Forum Energii’s recommendations

For Poland’s energy transition to succeed, it is crucial to remove barriers to the development of renewable energy, particularly onshore wind. The analysis also shows that demand for hard coal may decline faster than projected in the WAM scenario of the NECP, contributing to cost reductions. A new approach will, however, require revisiting the social compact with coal miners.

In the longer term, the development of offshore wind energy and continued support for energy storage will help balance the energy system and reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports, especially gas. A greater share of renewables will also enable faster electrification of heating and transport, further decreasing the need for imported oil, gas, and coal. Comprehensive and consistent action on all fronts is essential for Poland to build a modern, stable, and competitive energy system,and, ultimately, a strong and innovative economy.

“The transition must be carried out in an integrated way, linking electricity, heating, transport, industry, and the hydrogen sector. Efficient use of public funds is key, especially for building retrofits, heat pump deployment, and modernisation of district heating, which will enhance efficiency and flexibility of the power system. At the same time, we need to unlock grid connection capacity by simplifying procedures and introducing new mechanisms, such as auctions, to accelerate new investments and increase system flexibility,” says Tobiasz Adamczewski, Vice President of Forum Energii.