Like in other EU countries, renewable energy sources (RES) play an increasingly important role in Poland. A power system based on RES will differ fundamentally from one built on the continuous operation of large, central coal and gas-fired power plants. As more and more electricity supply comes from weather-dependent sources like wind and solar, flexibility—the ability of the system to respond rapidly to fluctuations in supply and demand—becomes increasingly critical.

However, one of the main conclusions of the Forum Energii report is that system flexibility has not improved, despite the enormous costs borne by consumers under Poland’s current capacity market mechanism. Contracts worth over PLN 100 billion have mostly supported inflexible coal units and new gas-fired units designed to run continuously. As a result, Poland is now maintaining two incompatible systems: variable, zero-emission sources and rigid, high-emission conventional power sources.

“Poland faces the dual challenge of ensuring reliable energy supply during dynamic changes, while also creating conditions for investment in new, more flexible and zero-emission generation capacity, including energy storage. This highlights the need to maintain a capacity market—but our experience so far clearly shows that it must be reformed. Without this, the energy transition will not only be delayed but also more expensive and less secure,” said Dr. Joanna Pandera, president of Forum Energii.

Flexibility can be achieved through tools such as energy storage, flexible gas units, or demand-side response (DSR). Without them, even having large amounts of available capacity does not guarantee system stability.

Flexibility as the New Pillar of Energy Security

According to Forum Energii’s analysis, Poland will need to build up to 100 GW of new generation capacity by 2040 to maintain secure electricity supply. However, the current investment pace is too slow. Furthermore, based on the latest 2025 ERAA (European Resource Adequacy Assessment), Europe—including Poland—faces an increasing risk of system imbalance as early as the 2030s. The phase-out of coal is inevitable, but without flexible and cost-effective alternatives, it cannot be safely replaced.

Under these circumstances, Poland’s electricity system urgently needs a reformed capacity market—one that not only ensures capacity is available in critical moments but also incentivizes investments in technologies aligned with the evolving needs of the system. Forum Energii recommends the introduction of a new capacity market architecture based on two distinct products: flexible capacity and dispatchable capacity.

Flexible capacity should be able to respond to sudden changes in the system, with activation times ranging from 15 minutes to one hour. This mechanism would open the market to open-cycle gas turbines, gas engines, energy storage systems (including those hybridized with renewables), and advanced DSR services. Dispatchable capacity, in contrast, would act as a reserve activated within up to 4 hours, suitable for cogeneration, combined-cycle gas units, and digitally managed distributed resources. This approach not only aligns the capacity mechanism with a transforming energy system but also introduces greater transparency and cost-effectiveness.

The report emphasizes that a key element for the success of the reform will be setting a formal system-flexibility target, both in technological and regulatory terms. Although such an obligation already exists under EU regulations, Poland has not implemented it in practice. This target should be introduced by 2026 to serve as a clear signal for investors and institutions planning grid and market development.

“Modernizing the energy system cannot rely solely on increasing capacity—it must also include the ability to dynamically manage that capacity under conditions of fluctuating demand and supply. That’s why the future capacity market mechanism should be part of a broader energy market reform, one that includes accelerated RES development, grid modernization, dynamic tariffs, and consumer engagement in the energy market,” said Tobiasz Adamczewski, vice president of Forum Energii.

An update of Poland’s national implementation plan—to be submitted to the European Commission as the basis for introducing a new capacity mechanism—is essential. This plan should reflect not only domestic needs, but also the impact on neighbouring markets and the requirements set out in EU resource adequacy assessments. Only a well-designed, coherent investment roadmap will enable Poland to build a next-generation power system, one that is reliable, zero-emission, and economically sustainable.

The Polish-language report is based on two independent studies (Redesigning Poland's Capacity Market and System Flexibility, Parts 1 and 2) prepared by Magnus Energy in cooperation with Forum Energii.