Industry generates significant added value for the Polish economy while also being a major consumer of primary energy — not only in the form of electricity but also as fuels and heat. Poland stands out due to the strong presence of highly energy-intensive sectors (including mining, fuel processing, and mineral processing) compared with other EU countries. Combined with an emissions-intensive power generation mix and outdated technological processes in many industries, this results in high overall greenhouse gas emissions. Industry is responsible for approximately 25% of all emissions in Poland. The main energy sources remain fossil fuels: natural gas (the sector consumes around half of the country’s total gas volume), coal, and oil. The high level of dependence on imported raw materials, currently amounting to 82% for gas and 97% for oil, exposes Polish companies to the risk of price shocks, as was clearly demonstrated by the energy crisis of 2022.

– Industrial electrification is not only a technological change, but above all a strategic decision about the direction of Poland’s economic development. Our report shows that implementation is possible, provided that electricity prices for the sector are reduced, appropriate support mechanisms are introduced, access to financing is ensured, and a stable regulatory environment is maintained. At the same time, this process must be economically viable and sustainable under market conditions – said Joanna Pandera PhD, President of Forum Energii.

Decarbonisation of 17 out of 24 manufacturing sectors is possible

The Forum Energii report shows that technological barriers preventing electrification in most industries are limited. Using solutions already available today, such as industrial heat pumps, induction furnaces, electric boilers, and resistance heating, it is possible to fully electrify heat production in 17 out of 24 manufacturing sectors.

Excluding hydrogen production and the fuel sector, the potential for industrial heat electrification in manufacturing reaches as much as 61%. Implementing this scenario would bring measurable benefits for Poland’s energy security:

• A 62% reduction in natural gas consumption for industrial heating purposes (approximately 3 billion cubic metres annually).
• A 42% reduction in coal consumption (2 million tonnes annually).
• An 83% reduction in annual oil and oil-derived product consumption.
• A reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of approximately 21 million tonnes of CO₂ annually.

Industrial heat pumps will play a key role in this process, accounting for nearly half (48%) of the electrification potential. These are among the most efficient technologies available, enabling a significant reduction in primary energy consumption.

Barriers: energy prices and the electricity grid

Although technologies are available, electrification in Poland is progressing too slowly. The main obstacle is cost, specifically the relationship between electricity prices and gas prices. The cost of electricity for industry in Poland is currently 2.6 times higher than the cost of energy generated from natural gas. This effectively discourages companies from investing in heat pumps or electric furnaces, even when investment support is available.

Another challenge is systemic and concerns preparing Poland’s National Power System (KSE) for increasing electricity demand. Full, technologically available electrification of industrial heat would double electricity consumption in this sector. Forum Energii estimates that this would increase electricity demand by an additional 57 TWh annually and raise average power demand by 9.6 GW.

– Industry is facing a choice today: modernisation or marginalisation. We estimate that the cost of electrification technologies will amount to approximately PLN 67 billion, which is comparable to the funds companies already allocate to replacing and upgrading their production assets. The challenge is not CAPEX, but OPEX — the operating costs resulting from electricity prices. Without appropriate support mechanisms and access to affordable, zero-emission energy, Polish industry may not be able to carry out the transition, and the market for industrial equipment may become dominated by suppliers from outside Europe, primarily from China  – added Marcin Dusiło, Industry Programme Lead.

The report Modernisation or marginalisation provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential and costs of transitioning Polish industry to clean electricity. Poland has the opportunity to become a European manufacturing hub by achieving a technological leap and implementing the latest solutions, provided that industrial electrification becomes a priority of the country’s economic policy. To ensure industry remains competitive, the state must provide mechanisms to reduce energy costs, stable financial support, a modern electricity grid, and an active industrial policy supporting the production of technologies and equipment in Poland and Europe, thereby reducing dependence on imported solutions.