The upcoming European Parliament elections will open a new chapter in EU climate and energy policy. The new European Commission, which begins its 5-year term in the fall, will have to monitor the implementation of a wide range of files related to the ‘Fit for 55’ package and navigating the Union towards the 2050 goals by setting targets for 2040. It will also certainly propose a new political strategy, as the dynamics of the discussion in the EU is in a state of constant flux. From Poland’s perspective, what new priorities of the European Commission will be most important and gain support and interest?   

At the end of December, one of the last power market auctions took place. Under this form of state aid, contracts so far concluded have been for nearly PLN 90 billion (nominally), which will be repaid until 2044. Financing for them comes from electricity consumers, in the average household electricity bill, in which the power market fee accounts for about 7%. This mechanism, although costly, allows maintaining capacity in the power system. So far, however, it has mainly generated subsidies for existing and new coal and gas-fired power plants. The eighth auction turned out to be different from the previous ones: it was decentralised, clean, cheaper and battery-based. Instead, there is no new generating capacity.

The development of renewable energy sources is one of the most urgent needs of the Polish energy system. RES lower energy costs, reduce emissions and increase energy security. However, although energy companies, industry, local authorities and individual consumers are interested in investments in RES, the further development of new, emission-free energy sources has been a challenge. One of the main problems is the denial of connection capacity to new RES investments. In addition to the necessary grid investments, a more efficient use of the existing infrastructure is needed to solve this problem. One of the tools available is cable pooling - enabling the interconnection of RES sources.

The Polish energy system urgently needs an accelerated development of new renewable capacity. Work is underway in the Polish parliament to liberalise the 10 H distance rule, which stemmed development of onshore wind. Changing this rule is one of the most important decisions on which the success of Poland's energy transition lies. The seemingly small change in the location of investments from the originally planned 500 m to 700 m from residential buildings - is a significant reduction in the potential for wind energy development.  

The results of the seventh auction in the Polish capacity market clearly show the dilemma Poland has faced - existing high-carbon (coal) capacity can no longer be supported with this mechanism, while gas is risky due to the geopolitical situation. Although Polish energy companies have not completely abandoned gas projects, fewer appeared in the auction than previously announced. There is also clearly a greater variety of technologies than before - for the first time, contracts were granted to storage.  The market is still expensive - for the second year in a row auctions ended in the first round and at the maximum price.

Poland has already held six power auctions. Analysis of their results shows that this mechanism in its current form is not an optimum solution for the country. The capacity market has proved more expensive than anticipated, has failed to curb the increase in electricity prices and, in addition, has contributed to the petrification of the outdated and coal-based generation structure. The arduous task of plugging the coal gap has only just begun, which is why decisions on modernisation and on methods for supporting capacity up to 2030 must be taken urgently.

The prices of coal, gas, and CO2 are reaching record levels while the price for electricity is galloping, causing panic among politicians, energy consumers, and institutions responsible for maintaining Poland’s energy security.

In recent years, over 600,000 households and businesses have invested in their own solar installations, and approximately 35,000 jobs have been created in companies offering services in this segment. This is the biggest, albeit unplanned, success of the Law and Justice government in the energy sector. However, further expansion of micro-installations in Poland is questionable - the government is planning changes in the rules governing this dynamically developing energy sector. This is an operation on a living organism, therefore surgical precision is needed in introducing changes - a transparent process, clear intentions and time that will allow the newly established sector and energy companies to prepare for the transition.

Poland’s energy sector is entering a period of major turbulence. The immediate question is the continued operation of the Turów power station since the EU Court of Justice recently ordered the suspension of lignite mining there. This is just the beginning of the problems. After 2025, when public support ends, the first 8 GW of coal capacity may leave the Polish system, and a little later, another 6 GW. The power plants will be shut down due to age and costs. Observing the government’s actions, one can get the impression that all hope lies in the proposed National Agency for Energy Security . Yet, this is a side discussion because no change in ownership structure will improve the situation of the failing coal power industry. Instead, difficult decisions must be made, and the possibilities of supporting the operation of coal-fired power plants with public money are already very limited.

The government is announcing changes in the support system for prosumers. The combination of the current operational support scheme (a version net-metering, called “rebates”), subsidies in the form of the “Mój Prąd” program and tax credits resulted in rapid development of solar energy in Poland. Within a few years the installed capacity in micro-installations increased from 200 MW to 3.3 GW. Security of energy supply in the summer has strengthened, CO2 emissions have been reduced and the generation mix has become more diversified to some extent. Citizens have fallen in love with renewables for good. So what’s next?