Poland’s energy transition is gaining momentum, and although it still lacks coherent and strategic policy documents to guide it. there are now tangible results: in 2024, coal’s share in electricity production fell to a record low of 56.2%. At the same time, the role of renewable energy sources (RES) is growing, with their share in electricity generation reaching 29.4%. However, the development of RES continues to be hindered by legislative barriers and a lack of institutional coordination (among ministries, regulators, system operators, and local governments). Poland has completely stopped importing gas and coal from Russia but is becoming increasingly dependent on other suppliers—in 2023, energy imports reached 45%. The eighth edition of the report Energy Transition in Poland. Edition 2025 by Forum Energii shows that while change is happening, it remains inconsistent, costly, and insufficient in the face of current challenges. 

Poland has just completed its presidential elections, yet strategic decisions regarding the future of the energy sector—including the development of new generation capacities (notably renewables) and the modernisation of district heating—still await resolution. The revision of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) and a strategy for the heating sector are also still pending. In response to the need for a deeper debate on the direction of Poland’s energy transition, Forum Energii has published a new report entitled The Time for Investment: Insights from Energy System Modelling for Poland 2040.

Poland's energy sector is entering a phase of rapid transformation. The installed capacity of renewable energy sources (RES) has surpassed 30 GW, with renewable electricity generation reaching a record 30% in 2024. In the coming years, the role of solar power, onshore wind, and offshore wind is expected to grow rapidly. Improving the conditions for renewable energy development is a critical step toward lowering energy prices in Poland and maintaining industrial competitiveness. The new report by Forum Energii, titled “Polish Grids 2040,” outlines solutions to support further integration of renewable energy sources and energy storage into the power system. 

The capacity market is a system of public support to maintain dispatchable capacity in the Polish electricity system. It was introduced in 2018, with the approval of the European Commission, because coal-fired power plants were no longer making money for themselves. It could have initiated the creation of new dispatchable and flexible capacity, but after eight auctions so far, it is mainly old coal units that are benefiting. Now the capacity mechanism needs to be redesigned to give an impetus to new, flexible investments replacing coal. We present our take on how to organise a new capacity market in Poland. 

Polish coal regions are the largest beneficiary of the EU's Just Transition Fund. This is a new instrument of the Cohesion Policy, supporting the achievement of the EU's energy and climate goals between 2021 and 2027. However, the future of the Fund in the next EU budgetary perspective is uncertain. Its continuation should be one of the priorities for the Polish government, and the upcoming Polish presidency is a perfect time to discuss it with the European partners. In the meantime, while there are many ministries in Poland responsible for energy sector, there is virtually no one responsible for a just transition. What is there to lose?

Poland’s energy transition is progressing, and 2023 was a year of real records. Although coal remains the main source of electricity production, its share in the mix fell to an all-time low of 60.5%, down 10 p.p. from a year earlier. Production from RES reached 27% for the first time. At the same time, energy production from natural gas increased, by more than 40%. This is a result of falling fuel prices and the flexibility of gas generation. Wholesale energy prices in Poland compared to other EU countries remain very high, and the economy’s dependence on imported fossil fuels is growing rapidly. In the latest, seventh edition of the “Energy Transition in Poland” report, Forum Energii presents the state of transition play and a broader look at the overall process.

Wind power is playing an increasingly important role in Poland's electricity system. Onshore wind farms are expected to become the second source in the electricity production mix this year, overtaking lignite. And as early as 2026, the first terawatt-hours from offshore wind turbines in Poland's Baltic region will be added to the Polish mix. In a new report by Forum Energii, we outline the state of the game: whether offshore will be launched on time, how to improve processes so that investments are made without delays, and how to realize the real potential of offshore wind energy on the Polish coast. 

The upcoming European Parliament elections will open a new chapter in EU climate and energy policy. The new European Commission, which begins its 5-year term in the fall, will have to monitor the implementation of a wide range of files related to the ‘Fit for 55’ package and navigating the Union towards the 2050 goals by setting targets for 2040. It will also certainly propose a new political strategy, as the dynamics of the discussion in the EU is in a state of constant flux. From Poland’s perspective, what new priorities of the European Commission will be most important and gain support and interest?   

In October 2023, the European Union adopted a revision of the directive promoting the development of renewable energy, setting new, higher targets for the community. In Forum Enegrii's report "Understanding EU's and Poland's Renewable Energy Goals", we analyze how the EU targets translate into the realities of Poland and other EU countries.

At the end of December, one of the last power market auctions took place. Under this form of state aid, contracts so far concluded have been for nearly PLN 90 billion (nominally), which will be repaid until 2044. Financing for them comes from electricity consumers, in the average household electricity bill, in which the power market fee accounts for about 7%. This mechanism, although costly, allows maintaining capacity in the power system. So far, however, it has mainly generated subsidies for existing and new coal and gas-fired power plants. The eighth auction turned out to be different from the previous ones: it was decentralised, clean, cheaper and battery-based. Instead, there is no new generating capacity.