EU countries depend on cooperation with Russia in the nuclear field. This has resulted in Rosatom not being sanctioned after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and trade in this sector is growing. This situation is disadvantageous for the EU and increases its vulnerability to Russian blackmail. Moreover, it strengthens the Russian military. The EU should increase its efforts to diversify supplies and build its own capabilities in the nuclear sector.

The National Power System (NPS) will face new challenges. These include the uninterrupted supply of energy to consumers when the oldest and most emission-intensive generating units are phased out, but also the efficient use of variable RES sources. District heating may be the key to solving NPS problems. In peak demand of the NPS, additional energy can be provided by cogeneration units, in times of surplus energy in the system - it can be absorbed by electric boilers producing cheap heat. The operation of CHP units can also improve the performance of electricity grids.

Over the past two years, natural gas has become a high-risk fuel: it is subject to huge price fluctuations and, following the disruption of supplies from Russia, competition for imports of this resource from other sources is increasing. Not long ago, there were plans in Poland to significantly increase the consumption of natural gas throughout the economy - by 75% by 2035. It was supposed to be a transition fuel.

The development of renewable energy sources is one of the most urgent needs of the Polish energy system. RES lower energy costs, reduce emissions and increase energy security. However, although energy companies, industry, local authorities and individual consumers are interested in investments in RES, the further development of new, emission-free energy sources has been a challenge. One of the main problems is the denial of connection capacity to new RES investments. In addition to the necessary grid investments, a more efficient use of the existing infrastructure is needed to solve this problem. One of the tools available is cable pooling - enabling the interconnection of RES sources.

2022 was another year of unexpected events. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed Europe’s approach to fossil fuel imports, particularly from Russia. The resulting energy crisis triggered by high gas prices and the decline in nuclear and hydroelectric production led to record high energy prices across Europe. These events are changing the way European countries look at the energy transition. Meanwhile, the modernisation of the Polish energy sector is still very slow. An overview of the increasingly comprehensive data on the energy sector is published by Forum Energii in the sixth edition of the report ‘Energy Transition in Poland. Edition 2023’.

If Poland does not come to an agreement on the NRP in the coming months - it will be too late for sensible spending of the money available to the country. By the end of June, the Polish government may present to the European Commission changes to the spending plan for the National Recovery Plan - completed with investments to increase resilience to the energy crisis. Consultations with the EC are just starting. This is the last bell for Poland to reach for loans and grants under the the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the REPowerEU plan. How to change the Polish NRP to make it a practical response to the energy crisis?

The energy crisis has highlighted imperfections in the EU power market. The current rules were created almost 30 years ago with the aim to incentivise large conventional power plants, but they now need to be adapted to new challenges.

The Polish energy system urgently needs an accelerated development of new renewable capacity. Work is underway in the Polish parliament to liberalise the 10 H distance rule, which stemmed development of onshore wind. Changing this rule is one of the most important decisions on which the success of Poland's energy transition lies. The seemingly small change in the location of investments from the originally planned 500 m to 700 m from residential buildings - is a significant reduction in the potential for wind energy development.  

The results of the seventh auction in the Polish capacity market clearly show the dilemma Poland has faced - existing high-carbon (coal) capacity can no longer be supported with this mechanism, while gas is risky due to the geopolitical situation. Although Polish energy companies have not completely abandoned gas projects, fewer appeared in the auction than previously announced. There is also clearly a greater variety of technologies than before - for the first time, contracts were granted to storage.  The market is still expensive - for the second year in a row auctions ended in the first round and at the maximum price.

Europe is going through its biggest energy crisis ever. The attention of decision makers is focused on ensuring energy and heat supplies in the coming months. Meanwhile, long-term challenges and problems in the energy sector that have not been solved before are only accumulating. One of them is the future of the largest power plant in Poland.