Poland’s energy transition is gaining momentum, and although it still lacks coherent and strategic policy documents to guide it. there are now tangible results: in 2024, coal’s share in electricity production fell to a record low of 56.2%. At the same time, the role of renewable energy sources (RES) is growing, with their share in electricity generation reaching 29.4%. However, the development of RES continues to be hindered by legislative barriers and a lack of institutional coordination (among ministries, regulators, system operators, and local governments). Poland has completely stopped importing gas and coal from Russia but is becoming increasingly dependent on other suppliers—in 2023, energy imports reached 45%. The eighth edition of the report Energy Transition in Poland. Edition 2025 by Forum Energii shows that while change is happening, it remains inconsistent, costly, and insufficient in the face of current challenges. 

In the first six months of this year, Poland wasted the potential to generate nearly 800 GWh of electricity from renewable energy sources—more than in the entire year of 2024. The growing mismatch between energy consumption and the output of wind and solar power plants is driving up the cost of operating the system month by month. Meanwhile, demand for electricity is increasing during the winter when there is less sunlight and some days are windless. At the same time, costly and depreciated coal units are approaching decommissioning. Two key needs emerge: making the system more flexible, and encouraging investments in new capacity that can operate effectively under the new system. These challenges, along with an analysis of the relationship between capacity adequacy and system flexibility, and recommendations for a reformed capacity market, are addressed in the latest report by Forum Energii, developed in cooperation with Magnus Energy, a pan-European energy transition consultancy, titled Capacity and Flexibility: What Kind of Capacity Market Does a Modern Power System Need?

Poland has just completed its presidential elections, yet strategic decisions regarding the future of the energy sector—including the development of new generation capacities (notably renewables) and the modernisation of district heating—still await resolution. The revision of the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) and a strategy for the heating sector are also still pending. In response to the need for a deeper debate on the direction of Poland’s energy transition, Forum Energii has published a new report entitled The Time for Investment: Insights from Energy System Modelling for Poland 2040.

The capacity market is a system of public support to maintain dispatchable capacity in the Polish electricity system. It was introduced in 2018, with the approval of the European Commission, because coal-fired power plants were no longer making money for themselves. It could have initiated the creation of new dispatchable and flexible capacity, but after eight auctions so far, it is mainly old coal units that are benefiting. Now the capacity mechanism needs to be redesigned to give an impetus to new, flexible investments replacing coal. We present our take on how to organise a new capacity market in Poland. 

Polish coal regions are the largest beneficiary of the EU's Just Transition Fund. This is a new instrument of the Cohesion Policy, supporting the achievement of the EU's energy and climate goals between 2021 and 2027. However, the future of the Fund in the next EU budgetary perspective is uncertain. Its continuation should be one of the priorities for the Polish government, and the upcoming Polish presidency is a perfect time to discuss it with the European partners. In the meantime, while there are many ministries in Poland responsible for energy sector, there is virtually no one responsible for a just transition. What is there to lose?

Poland’s energy transition is progressing, and 2023 was a year of real records. Although coal remains the main source of electricity production, its share in the mix fell to an all-time low of 60.5%, down 10 p.p. from a year earlier. Production from RES reached 27% for the first time. At the same time, energy production from natural gas increased, by more than 40%. This is a result of falling fuel prices and the flexibility of gas generation. Wholesale energy prices in Poland compared to other EU countries remain very high, and the economy’s dependence on imported fossil fuels is growing rapidly. In the latest, seventh edition of the “Energy Transition in Poland” report, Forum Energii presents the state of transition play and a broader look at the overall process.

At the end of December, one of the last power market auctions took place. Under this form of state aid, contracts so far concluded have been for nearly PLN 90 billion (nominally), which will be repaid until 2044. Financing for them comes from electricity consumers, in the average household electricity bill, in which the power market fee accounts for about 7%. This mechanism, although costly, allows maintaining capacity in the power system. So far, however, it has mainly generated subsidies for existing and new coal and gas-fired power plants. The eighth auction turned out to be different from the previous ones: it was decentralised, clean, cheaper and battery-based. Instead, there is no new generating capacity.

Poland’s new coalition government has declared a new opening in energy policy and offers much more ambitious transition goals, although the details of which are yet to be worked out. One of the first tasks of the new government is to propose a series of climate and energy strategies. Polarised opinions, attempts at disinformation, and political tension will make creating these guiding documents quite difficult. The preparation of the country's new energy and climate policy should be underpinned by sound analyses to justify the choices made. A council composed of the country's leading experts should be established to be a substantive voice in the process.

The new government has a long list of decisions to make. Neglected power plant repairs, the poor condition of distribution networks, an unfinished project to spin off coal assets, and a declining mining industry. On top of that, there is downward pressure on electricity prices. Each of these areas requires immediate decisions and large amounts of money.

To lead an effective energy transition, you need not only regulations, but also good, modern computing tools. The world is changing rapidly - the winner will be the one who is able to plan strategically, but also react to changes and minimize costs. In order to meet these challenges, the Energy Forum, together with Enercode, has taken on the task of building an open energy model that will support the planning of the modernization of the Polish energy sector, taking into account the acceleration of the development of renewable energy sources.