From 1 January 2025, Poland will assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union and will have the opportunity to influence the direction and shape of EU policies for the next six months. This is an important moment in the history of the EU, geopolitical tensions are rising and expectations of Poland are high. Which areas in the field of energy and climate should become priorities during the Polish presidency? The keys for selecting the priorities are an analysis of where Poland has strong arguments supported by experience and determining what is likely to gain attention across the EU.

Compared to the energy system’s resources available before the Russian invasion, Ukraine now has only a quarter of its production capacity. Insufficient energy supplies mean that this winter many parts of Ukraine may be deprived of not only electricity but also heat and running water for significant portions of the day. Russia has consistently targeted and destroyed Ukrainian energy infrastructure to try to paralyse the economy and break the society’s will to defend against the Russian aggression and force the Kyiv authorities to capitulate to Russia on its terms. This report analyses the current state of the Ukrainian energy system and proposes solutions to reduce the risk of a humanitarian disaster in the country.

As the current European Commission's term ends, the incoming Commission will have to set new priorities in the EU energy and climate policy. Significant changes are anticipated in the energy and industry sectors, driven by the Fit for 55 package implementation, aiming to reduce emissions by 2030 and significantly deploy RES. This transition is essential for enhancing EU energy independence, reducing fuel import costs, and improving environmental quality. However, challenges remain due to disparities in wealth and institutional weaknesses, particularly in Central Europe.

The upcoming European Parliament elections will open a new chapter in EU climate and energy policy. The new European Commission, which begins its 5-year term in the fall, will have to monitor the implementation of a wide range of files related to the ‘Fit for 55’ package and navigating the Union towards the 2050 goals by setting targets for 2040. It will also certainly propose a new political strategy, as the dynamics of the discussion in the EU is in a state of constant flux. From Poland’s perspective, what new priorities of the European Commission will be most important and gain support and interest?   

The European Council decided on December 14 to open accession negotiations with Ukraine. In the coming months and years, Ukraine will have to do the arduous, technical work of implementing EU regulations. This includes the energy sector. In the roadmap prepared by the Green Deal Ukraïna project, in which Forum Energii is a partner, we identify the most urgent areas of energy and climate reform for Ukraine and take a closer look at the accession negotiations.

EU countries depend on cooperation with Russia in the nuclear field. This has resulted in Rosatom not being sanctioned after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and trade in this sector is growing. This situation is disadvantageous for the EU and increases its vulnerability to Russian blackmail. Moreover, it strengthens the Russian military. The EU should increase its efforts to diversify supplies and build its own capabilities in the nuclear sector.

The EU embargo on Russian fuels did not extend to natural gas (including LNG, liquefied natural gas) or LPG (liquefied petroleum gas). In 2022 alone, EU countries paid as much as 16 billion euros for Russian LNG, a record high. Poland did not import any LNG from Russia, however it is the largest importer of LPG in the entire EU. In 2022, Poland spent about 700 million euros on Russian LPG. In this article, Forum Energii will explain how to close the loopholes in the EU embargo on Russian resources to finally eliminate them from the EU market.

In 2021, about a quarter of the oil used in the EU, about €48 billion worth in total, came from Russia. The invasion of Ukraine prompted EU countries to impose sanctions on this commodity. However, the sanctions contain loopholes that have made Poland the EU’s largest importer of Russian oil.  While sealing the sanctions regime is possible, electrification of transportation will in the long run safeguard against the risk of replacing dependence on Russia with dependence on other petrostates.

Ukraine has prepared relatively well for the heating season, despite the Russian invasion and subsequent war, which has been ongoing for more than six months. The accumulated stocks of coal and gas are likely to be sufficient to ensure heat and electricity supply. The decline in demand for electric power due to reduced economic activity during the war is greater than the lost generation potential, enabling Ukraine to export electricity to the EU. The biggest challenge will be to secure heating if the Russian shelling of CHP plants intensifies. This could cause a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine and increase the number of refugees.  

What actually happened at the recent European Council? Poland supported the goal of climate neutrality or quite the contrary? What can be expected in the coming months? Aleksandra Gawlikowska-Fyk and Joanna Maćkowiak-Pandera discuss the results of the European Council conclusions and its implications.