Polish coal regions are the largest beneficiary of the EU's Just Transition Fund. This is a new instrument of the Cohesion Policy, supporting the achievement of the EU's energy and climate goals between 2021 and 2027. However, the future of the Fund in the next EU budgetary perspective is uncertain. Its continuation should be one of the priorities for the Polish government, and the upcoming Polish presidency is a perfect time to discuss it with the European partners. In the meantime, while there are many ministries in Poland responsible for energy sector, there is virtually no one responsible for a just transition. What is there to lose?

From 1 January 2025, Poland will assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union and will have the opportunity to influence the direction and shape of EU policies for the next six months. This is an important moment in the history of the EU, geopolitical tensions are rising and expectations of Poland are high. Which areas in the field of energy and climate should become priorities during the Polish presidency? The keys for selecting the priorities are an analysis of where Poland has strong arguments supported by experience and determining what is likely to gain attention across the EU.

As the current European Commission's term ends, the incoming Commission will have to set new priorities in the EU energy and climate policy. Significant changes are anticipated in the energy and industry sectors, driven by the Fit for 55 package implementation, aiming to reduce emissions by 2030 and significantly deploy RES. This transition is essential for enhancing EU energy independence, reducing fuel import costs, and improving environmental quality. However, challenges remain due to disparities in wealth and institutional weaknesses, particularly in Central Europe.

The upcoming European Parliament elections will open a new chapter in EU climate and energy policy. The new European Commission, which begins its 5-year term in the fall, will have to monitor the implementation of a wide range of files related to the ‘Fit for 55’ package and navigating the Union towards the 2050 goals by setting targets for 2040. It will also certainly propose a new political strategy, as the dynamics of the discussion in the EU is in a state of constant flux. From Poland’s perspective, what new priorities of the European Commission will be most important and gain support and interest?   

At the end of December, one of the last power market auctions took place. Under this form of state aid, contracts so far concluded have been for nearly PLN 90 billion (nominally), which will be repaid until 2044. Financing for them comes from electricity consumers, in the average household electricity bill, in which the power market fee accounts for about 7%. This mechanism, although costly, allows maintaining capacity in the power system. So far, however, it has mainly generated subsidies for existing and new coal and gas-fired power plants. The eighth auction turned out to be different from the previous ones: it was decentralised, clean, cheaper and battery-based. Instead, there is no new generating capacity.

Poland’s new coalition government has declared a new opening in energy policy and offers much more ambitious transition goals, although the details of which are yet to be worked out. One of the first tasks of the new government is to propose a series of climate and energy strategies. Polarised opinions, attempts at disinformation, and political tension will make creating these guiding documents quite difficult. The preparation of the country's new energy and climate policy should be underpinned by sound analyses to justify the choices made. A council composed of the country's leading experts should be established to be a substantive voice in the process.

The new government has a long list of decisions to make. Neglected power plant repairs, the poor condition of distribution networks, an unfinished project to spin off coal assets, and a declining mining industry. On top of that, there is downward pressure on electricity prices. Each of these areas requires immediate decisions and large amounts of money.

Household electricity prices in recent months bore little relation to real production costs, were kept artificially low and treated as an interface with voters. State intervention in this area was necessary in 2022 due to unprecedented price increases on the markets. If the price-freezing mechanisms expire as planned at the end of 2023, electricity prices for households could rise by up to 68% in January. The impact of price spikes should be mitigated. We are proposing a package of solutions: an energy voucher, support for distribution tariffs, additional money for improving the energy efficiency of buildings and a special tariff for heating buildings with electricity.

The energy crisis has highlighted imperfections in the EU power market. The current rules were created almost 30 years ago with the aim to incentivise large conventional power plants, but they now need to be adapted to new challenges.

The results of the seventh auction in the Polish capacity market clearly show the dilemma Poland has faced - existing high-carbon (coal) capacity can no longer be supported with this mechanism, while gas is risky due to the geopolitical situation. Although Polish energy companies have not completely abandoned gas projects, fewer appeared in the auction than previously announced. There is also clearly a greater variety of technologies than before - for the first time, contracts were granted to storage.  The market is still expensive - for the second year in a row auctions ended in the first round and at the maximum price.