In the film with Louis de Funès, a separate, unreal world was created for the titular hibernatus to make him feel comfortable in the new reality. With the National Energy Security Agency (NABE) that the government is proposing for coal power, it is similar. The ring-fencing of coal assets is necessary because they are making increasing losses, the power companies are in debt, and with the coal burden in the new reality they are running out of finance to invest. However, without a cost-benefit analysis for the economy and society, or an assessment of the risks, NABE, instead of unlocking the transition, may hibernate it and introduce chaos that will threaten Poland's energy security.

The government is announcing changes in the support system for prosumers. The combination of the current operational support scheme (a version net-metering, called “rebates”), subsidies in the form of the “Mój Prąd” program and tax credits resulted in rapid development of solar energy in Poland. Within a few years the installed capacity in micro-installations increased from 200 MW to 3.3 GW. Security of energy supply in the summer has strengthened, CO2 emissions have been reduced and the generation mix has become more diversified to some extent. Citizens have fallen in love with renewables for good. So what’s next?

The National Recovery Plans are built on credit. The investments we design today must serve future generations—our children—because we all will be paying it back until 2057. It is based on concrete reforms, changes that need to happen in order to achieve the intended objectives. The consultations on the recovery plan in Poland is now coming to an end. How should we change it so that the money pays off in the future? In this opinion, I refer to the Green Energy and Energy Efficiency Component.

The Ministry of Climate and Environment have announced its plans to abolish the obligation to sell electricity on power exchange by generators, a so-called ‘obligo’. A public consultation on the proposed law is underway. The topic seems technical and niche. But the effects of the planned changes will be widespread: with the electricity market not very competitive, the abolition of the obligation will increase wholesale prices and have a negative impact on consumers―mainly industrial ones. This is a step backwards in terms of competition and transparency of the electricity market in Poland.

The government is about to conclude its public consultation of the draft Polish Hydrogen Strategy until 2030 with an Outlook until 2040. It gives hope that this time around Poland will join other European countries in the early stages of creating new technological solutions and supply chains. It is a chance for building national potential in a new industry and creating jobs. However, the hydrogen strategy is not yet reflected in other strategic documents defining the future of the Polish energy sector.  

The future begins today, not tomorrow. The year 2020 was unusual in many ways, so many people will be relieved that it is now ending. But in terms of the energy transition, it was a watershed year. The European Union reached agreement on the European Green Deal. In Poland, the government and labour unions openly admitted that Poles need to talk about the end of the coal era. The energy sector in the country is at a crossroads and it is time for it to choose the right path for its further operation and development in 2021.

EU climate policy is accelerating again. The European Commission has just proposed raising the target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions until 2030 to 55%. Poland has always opposed ambitious goals, but now a breakthrough seems possible―the end of coal is inevitable, we must take care of energy security, after coronavirus we need new investments, and reducing CO2 emissions is associated with improving air quality, which the government defines as a strategic challenge. By taking these measures now, in heat, electricity and transport, emissions can be reduced by over 40%. The remaining cuts will come from the new policies on industry and agriculture and the sharing of efforts between Member States.

The future energy mix will be dominated by renewable energy sources (RES) with zero production costs, such as wind farms and photovoltaics. The abundance of cheap electricity will allow for the replacement of fossil fuels, both in heating and transport sectors. Effective integration of these sectors, within one energy system, will also help to solve the problem of weather-dependent RES production.

The energy transformation has accelerated significantly. Thanks to the enormous cost reduction of solar PV and onshore wind, these technologies are increasingly being chosen by the private sector and households as an investment that allows for significant savings. In recent years, however, the development of renewable energy sources (RES) has depended on state policies and support schemes. They were to enable Poland to achieve the so-called RES target - renewables were to account for 15% of gross final energy consumption in 2020[1]. According to our estimates, the target is still far from being achieved - in 2019 the share of RES amounted to 11.5% only and everything indicates that this year too, the result of 15% is out of reach.

On 17 July the European Council will launch the final negotiations on the EU budget, unprecedented in scale and intended to pull the EU out of recession and give it a new boost. Since December 2019 Poland has been part of the EU discussions, trying to distance itself from climate neutrality in 2050. Although all other Member States agreed to it.