The pressure to accelerate Poland’s energy transition is increasing because of the need to reduce emissions, ensure energy security, and maintain the competitiveness of the economy. In just the past year, coal consumption has dropped by 14%. However, the structure of primary energy consumption in Poland remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, which still account for as much as 85% of total energy use, including 41% from coal, 27% from oil, and 17% from natural gas.

In the 20 years since Poland joined the European Union, two opposing trends have emerged: coal consumption has decreased by 38%, while oil and gas consumption has risen by 41% and 43%, respectively. This means the transition is progressing in an uneven and uncoordinated way, which hinders effective reduction of the economy’s carbon intensity.

Energy imports—record costs and new supply routes

One of the most significant successes in recent years has been Poland’s complete independence from Russian coal and gas imports. In 2024, the share of Russian raw materials in Poland’s energy mix was 0%, compared to 52% (gas) and 7% (coal) in 2015. Import directions have shifted—the main current suppliers are Saudi Arabia (29%), Norway (18%), and the USA (17%).

“Despite full independence from Russian resources, the bills for importing fossil fuels remain enormous. In 2024, Poland paid as much as 112 billion PLN for them, including 1.5 billion PLN for final deliveries from Russia. Since 2015, the total cost of energy resource imports has amounted to 1.2 trillion PLN. At the same time, Poland’s overall dependence on energy imports has increased, rising from 29% to 45% over the past decade. The greatest long-term dependency concerns crude oil, with nearly 97% imported from abroad. Increasing dependence is also visible in the case of gas—in 2024, imports covered 82% of domestic demand. Even in coal, the consumption of which has dropped to record lows, Poland still relies on imports for one-tenth of its supply. This shows that despite partial progress in the energy transition, the Polish economy remains heavily reliant on imported fuels, and we pay a high price for this dependence,” said Kacper Kwidziński, an analyst with Forum Energii.   

Renewables are growing, but still too slowly

Although the share of RES in Poland’s power mix is increasing, this growth is chaotic and unevenly distributed across technologies. In 2024, RES accounted for 29.4% of electricity production. Most of the new capacity installed last year came from photovoltaics, mainly driven by prosumer activity and larger PV plants. However, there has been a lack of growth in onshore wind power capacity.

The increase in renewable generation displaces inflexible coal capacity, leading to more frequent curtailment of renewables due to a lack of energy storage and flexible demand. The risk of system imbalance is growing, especially during record peak power demand. This shows that further transition requires not only expanding renewable capacity but, above all, modernising infrastructure, developing storage solutions, and supporting flexibility on the consumer side.

Poland remains one of the most emission-intensive economies in the world

Poland still ranks among the world’s most emission-intensive economies, both per unit of GDP and per unit of energy consumption. Only Kuwait, South Africa, Kazakhstan, and China exceed Poland in terms of economy-wide emissions intensity. At the same time, in 2024 the average price of CO₂ emission allowances was €64.75 per tonne, which was lower than expected, limiting budget revenues from the EU ETS system. Nevertheless, revenues from allowance sales amounted to 16.6 billion PLN.

The report as a compass for change

Energy Transition in Poland. Edition 2025 is an annual, independent analysis prepared by Forum Energii experts. It contains a detailed energy balance, data on the fuel mix, emissions, imports, investments, and directions of energy policy. The document is intended to serve as a source of knowledge and a reference point for policymakers, investors, local governments, and the public—all participants in the transformation process.

Progress of the energy transition since 2004 (since Poland’s EU accession)

Source: Own elaboration based on data from ARE, GUS, EEA, ARP, ENTSOG, KOBiZE, and Eurostat.

“Poland’s energy transition is progressing, but it is still mainly driven by external factors—EU energy and climate policies, CO₂ emissions allowance prices, and the geopolitical situation. What is lacking is a coherent, long-term national strategy that would set the direction for change and integrate the actions of the government, local authorities, and the private sector. The Polish debate around the transition too often focuses on the fear of shutting down coal power plants instead of emphasising the fact that we are in an unprecedented investment period in new low-emission capacities and energy storage that will ensure energy security,” said Tobiasz Adamczewski, Vice President of Forum Energii.