Over the next decades, Europe’s energy generation landscape will change significantly. Achieving climate neutrality means replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources within the next 30 years. Biomethane, which can replace the use of natural gas, will be one of the essential assets in this transition.

It is crucial to start planning for the rational use of green gases in the EU economy, as their supply may fall short of demand. It should be kept in mind that some sectors of the economy can be decarbonised more easily and at a lower cost through electrification.

The EU’s RePowerEU plan sets ambitious targets to increase biomethane production from 3.5 bcm in 2021 to 35 bcm by 2030, aiming to reduce dependence on Russian gas. However, a production gap of 15–24 bcm per year is anticipated.

A critical partner with significant potential for supporting biomethane usage in the EU is Ukraine. Despite facing challenges such as war and regulatory hurdles, Ukraine has substantial production capacity—up to 1 bcm by 2030 and as much as 22 bcm by 2050. Currently, exports rely on voluntary certification. However, aligning Ukraine’s regulatory systems with EU standards is crucial for scaling up trade.

Key benefits of biomethane include an 80% reduction in emissions compared to natural gas, enhanced energy security, and economic value derived from organic waste utilization. Overcoming regulatory and market barriers could unlock opportunities for biomethane to bolster Europe’s decarbonization and energy independence efforts.

The report “Harvesting Green Energy: The Potential of Ukraine-EU Biomethane Cooperation,” published under the Green Deal Ukraina project, of which Forum Energii is a partner, explores the feasibility of importing biomethane from Ukraine to the EU. It also examines the conditions necessary for mutually beneficial cooperation in this field.

Conclusion:

• Significant Potential: Ukraine has the capacity to produce substantial quantities of biomethane, which EU consumers are eager to purchase to reduce the cost of societal decarbonization.
• Certification Systems: Due to the current gas network structure, biomethane exports will rely on robust certification systems rather than tracking individual biomethane molecules.
• Investor Confidence: Reliable certification is crucial for investors, as system failures could jeopardize all Ukrainian biomethane exports to the EU.
• Mutual Benefits: Facilitating biomethane trade offers clear advantages for both the EU and Ukraine, including enhanced supply security, increased competitiveness, and significant progress toward decarbonisation.