In the long term, the country faces two scenarios in the energy sector. The first is continued European integration. Implementing the required reforms will increase Ukraine’s attractiveness to investors and put the country on the path to modernization. Most likely, Ukraine’s energy sector will mostly rely on nuclear, natural gas, and renewable energy in the future, and the system will be much more decentralized.

An alternative scenario is the success of Russian policy. A prolonged war with insufficient air-defense supplies will result in an energy deficit and weaken Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

If Ukraine were to be defeated by Russia, pro-European reforms would halt, closing the market to Western investors. As a result, at best, the old system will be rebuilt, but it will not provide a basis for the country’s economic recovery, as it will be condemned to isolation and to await more Russian aggression.

In the energy sector, EU membership offers Ukraine the prospect of long-awaited modernization. In turn, Russia responded with massive shelling and interruptions in electricity and heating supplies. Therefore, supporting the reconstruction of Ukraine’s energy sector is not only a humanitarian issue but also a struggle to maintain a Western-based order of rule of law, trade, and technological cooperation, rather than an Eastern-based order of military power.

The stakes in this war go far beyond Ukraine’s own security and independence.

This is an excerpt from an analysis written by our experts from the European Programme for Brookings. The complete analysis is available at: Ukraine's energy sector is a key battleground in the war with Russia | Brookings