March 2025 - PV back in the system

At the same time, there was a reduction in RES work of 103.2 GWh last month - more than twice as much as in March 2024. In comparison, the average hourly power demand in Poland was 18.3 GW. In simple terms, this means that the lost energy could cover the demand of the entire Polish electricity system for more than 5 hours.

The high share of RES together with low demand resulted in a decrease in weighted average electricity prices (PLN 432.3/MWh against PLN 502.0/MWh in February) and low CO₂ emissions of 7.9 million tonnes of CO₂ for March.

The first place in Poland's electricity generation mix was again taken by coal with a share of 55.5%, closely followed by natural gas with 14.0%.

Electricity production

Production from renewable energy sources  

In March, renewables accounted for a total of 28.8% (4.2 TWh) of electricity generated.

Wind sources were responsible for just under half of RES generation (43.2%). This volume amounted to 1.8 TWh. This is 20.5% less than in March 2024 and 34.0% more than in February 2025.The installed wind power capacity at the beginning of March was 10.9 GW.

PV installations in March reached a production level of 1.4 TWh, an increase of 80.6% m/m and 28.5% y/y. The installed PV capacity at the beginning of February was 21.6 GW, of which as much as 12.1 GW were prosumer installations (according to ARE).

Biomass plants produced around 0.8 TWh in March, while hydroelectric plants produced 0.1 TWh.

The maximum hourly share of RES in national electricity production reached 60.2% in March, while the minimum was 8.4%. Meanwhile, the largest hourly share of RES in electricity consumption was 74.7%.

In the Polish electricity system, the share of RES in electricity consumption (i.e. the ratio of generation from RES to the sum of production from all sources plus imports and storage) is customarily higher than the share of renewables in production. In situations where the sum of delivered power in a given hour is higher than the current demand, it is necessary to use electricity storage, export or even switch off RES sources.

In March, the need for such non-market redispatch of generation units by the operator occurred during eighteen days. A total of 103.2 GWh of electricity generation was curtailed. This is more than twice as much as in March last year.

The graph shows the cumulative annual values (from the beginning of the year to the last day of the reported month) of non-market redispatch (so-called curtailment) of electricity from wind and solar farms.

Production from fossil fuels 

In March 2025, electricity generation from conventional sources relied more on natural gas than a year ago. Gas-fired power plants and CHPs produced 2.0 TWh, (down 1.5% m/m and up 20.1% y/y).

However, coal units continued to dominate the electricity system in March. Production from hard coal was down 2.2% year-on-year in March and down as much as 20.1% (to 5.1 TWh) compared to February 2025. Production from lignite recorded a decrease of 1.5% year-on-year and a decline of 9.7% m/m (to 3.0 TWh).

In total, 8.1 TWh of electricity (55.5% of the mix) was produced from coal in March. This is a decrease in production of 1.0% y/y and 16.5% m/m.

The graph shows the electricity generation mix in Poland by different technologies using fossil fuels or renewable sources. The primary source of electricity is hard coal and lignite, but the share of natural gas and RES continues to grow. Depending on the season, wind power or photovoltaics provide the most energy among renewable sources. 

The changes in the structure of electricity generation that have been taking place in recent years are unprecedented despite the apparent decline in generation from renewable sources in recent months. Between March 2015 and March 2025, the use of coal overall decreased by 25.5pc. The systematic development of renewables means that the gap between the use of coal and RES in the system is narrowing faster and faster. In addition, large natural gas units are starting to play an increasingly important role.

The graph shows how the monthly shares of each source's electricity production in total production have changed over the past few years.

Emissions, demand and imports 

In March, estimated emissions fell by 14.6% (to 7.9 million tonnes of CO₂) compared to February 2025. Compared to March 2024, they were 0.7% higher.

Electricity demand was 13.6 TWh in March, with a maximum average hourly demand of 23.0 GWh. This compares with a demand of 14.4 TWh in March last year, with a maximum hourly demand of 24.4 GWh.

Net exports in March amounted to 0.2 TWh.

March 2025 - details

• The average monthly power demand in March 2025 was 18.3 GW (1.1 GW less than in March a year ago), reaching a maximum of 23.0 GW (minimum - 11.9 GW ).
• Electricity consumption was 13.6 TWh (6.0% less than last year), while gross generation was 14.5 TWh (0.7% more year-on-year).

The power demand in the Polish power system varies between 10 GW and 28 GW. The average value illustrates the system situation in a given month. By observing the monthly minima and maxima, it has so far been noticeable that the summer months are characterised by significant power demand variability and high demand peaks around midday. However, these profiles are now changing, due to the dynamic emergence of heat pumps, which increase demand during the winter months, and air conditioners and photovoltaic installations, whose greatest impact can be observed during the summer months. 

• Net electricity exports amounted to 0.2 TWh, or 1.5% of domestic demand.

In the graph we observe the physical cross-border exchange of electricity, i.e. from which country we import and to which country we export energy in a given period. Addition values indicate that imports were the main direction in a given month and a negative value indicates that energy was mainly exported. Physical exchanges can be forced by system conditions or result from trade flows. The direction of electricity trade is mainly influenced by the price difference in the markets (energy flows from a country with a lower price to a country with a higher price). Cross-border exchanges with Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Sweden and Lithuania take place within the Single Day-ahead Coupling, as well as inter-operator exchanges. The exchange with Ukraine, which became possible from May 2023 thanks to the ENTSO-E decision, takes place within the framework of unilateral monthly auctions announced by PSE. Previously, the exchange only took place unidirectionally from Ukraine to Poland on the Zamość-Dobrotwór connection. Energy exchange with Sweden and Lithuania takes place via a direct current connection (HVDC). The electricity systems of the other countries are synchronised, hence the exchange takes place using alternating current lines (HVAC) and these are physical (not commercial) flows. 

• Renewable electricity generation accounted for 28.8% of the generation mix, this share decreased by 1.3 p.p. compared to last year.

The graph shows the share of renewable electricity in total production for a given month and year. The share of renewables in consumption may differ minimally from the visible values due to imports and exports. Since 2015, an expansion of wind sources is visible (higher % of RES in autumn and winter), while a dynamic expansion of photovoltaics (higher % of RES in spring and summer) is visible since 2020. 

• Among renewable sources, 12.4% of electricity was produced by wind farms (1.8 TWh, or 43.2% of RES production), photovoltaics were responsible for 9.9% (1.4 TWh - 34.3% of RES), 1% came from hydropower (0.1 TWh - 3.5% of RES) and 5.5% from biomass (0.8 TWh - 19% of RES).
• Pumped storage power stations were responsible for the production of 0.04 TWh of electricity. This is 16.7% more than in February (0.04 TWh).
• Fossil fuels provided the remaining 71.2% of electricity: hard coal 34.8% (5.1 TWh), lignite 20.7% (3.0 TWh), natural gas 14% (2.0 TWh), and other fossil fuels 1.6% (0.2 TWh).

In the graph we see the percentage shares of electricity production by source. 

• Coal prices for power plants (PSCMI1 index) increased by 0.9% during the month, to PLN 16.8/GJ (approx. PLN 367/t). Coal for district heating (PSCMI2 index) costs PLN 19.7/GJ (approx. PLN 468/t), down 6.4% on the previous month.
• The weighted average price of natural gas delivered in March fell by 9% compared to February, to 192.1 PLN/MWh, 14.3% less than a year ago.

The chart shows coal, gas prices on Polish and international markets, converted to a common unit (PL/MWh of energy in fuel) for comparability.  
*For coal, the domestic market is represented by the PSCMI1 index and the international market by the ARGUS-McCloskey CIF ARA API 2 index.  
*Natural gas in the domestic market is the weighted average (from POLPX data) delivery price for the month, while the international market for pipeline gas is represented by the TTF exchange index and for LNG by the Henry Hub index. 
For completeness, the chart also shows the price of CO₂ emission allowances from the primary market (trading on EEX). 

• Emissions from the electricity sector were estimated at 7.9 million tonnes of CO₂, 0.7% higher than a year ago and 14.6% lower than in February.

Knowing the structure of electricity generation allows carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation to be calculated. CO₂ emissions are calculated on the basis of reference fuel benchmarks adopted by the Energy Forum and calibrated to the reported emissions of the previous year. 

• Equalised delivery in each hour of the day ahead (in the so-called strip - BASE instrument) was traded 5.8% lower, at an average of PLN 427.5/MWh, and in peak hours (PEAK5) 6.1% lower, at PLN 475.5/MWh. The pricing of supplies on the SPOT market (RDN) fell by 28.4%, to 408.5 PLN/MWh. Prices on this market ranged from -294.3 PLN/MWh to 1096.7 PLN/MWh.

The graph shows a comparison of the weighted average monthly prices on the POLPX. The Commodity Forward Market covers approximately 80% of the energy sales volume on the Polish Power Exchange.  
The two most important instruments relate to the delivery of energy around the clock (BASE) and from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. (PEAK5). The contracts are concluded with delivery in the future (max. 3 years). The vast majority of transactions on the exchange are for the purchase of energy with delivery in the coming calendar year (n+1). 
On the basis of the contracts concluded in a given month, the volume-weighted average BASE_n+1 and PEAK5_n+1 indexes were calculated. This reflects the long-term situation on the electricity market. 
In contrast, the TGeBase Index relates to the Day-Ahead Market (with next-day delivery) - it reflects the current market situation and is characterised by high volatility. The weighted monthly average is usually lower than the prices in the Forward Market and seasonal dependencies are negligible.

• The weighted average price of CO₂ emission allowances (EUAs) on the primary market was EUR 68.7/tCO2, i.e. 9.4% less than a month earlier. In March, the Polish budget received PLN 1.2 billion as a result of the sale of CO₂ emission allowances on the primary market (EEX exchange), and since the beginning of the year, PLN 3.8 billion has been received.
• The CDS (Clean Dark Spread), an indicator of the margin of coal-fired power plants, was 9.7 PLN/MWh in March, representing 2.2% of the weighted average wholesale price of electricity delivered in that month. Over the course of the year, the index has fallen by around 74.5 PLN/MWh (it was 84.2 PLN/MWh at the time). According to the current forecast, the CDS in 2025 will average 43.7 PLN/MWh, representing 9.4% of the weighted average wholesale price of electricity delivered.

The graph shows the Clean Dark Spread calculated from: historical contracts (BASE, PEAK, OFFPEAK) weighted by the share of deliveries in a given month (POLPX Commodity Futures Market), spot market contracts (POLPX Day-Ahead Market), coal prices (PSCMI1) and CO₂ emission allowance prices (EEX primary market).  
The Clean Dark Spread (coal-fired power plant variable cost spread indicator) is the difference between the electricity price and the estimated variable costs associated with coal-fired power generation (fuel and emission allowances). The Clean Dark Spread is an indicator correlated with the profit of the generator, producing electricity from coal (in reality, it is still necessary to take into account transport costs, operating costs, incurred and planned investment costs, etc.). The analysis of the evolution of this value, together with the CSS, allows the estimation of the current financial situation of the generating companies.  
The beginning of the bands corresponding to fuel or entitlements under the horizontal axis is due to the negative value of the CDS. The values in grey represent the forecast for 2024.

• The CSS (Clean Spark Spread), the equivalent of the CDS for gas-fired power plants, was 9.3 PLN/MWh this month. In March 2024, it was about 50.8 PLN/MWh higher (then 60.1 PLN/MWh). According to the current forecast, the CSS in 2025 will average 26.2 PLN/MWh, representing 5.6% of the weighted average wholesale delivered price of electricity.
  
  

The graph shows the Clean Spark Spread calculated based on: historical contracts (BASE, PEAK, OFFPEAK) weighted by the share of deliveries in a given month (POLPX Commodity Forward Market), spot market contracts (POLPX Day-Ahead Market), natural gas prices (POLPX Commodity Forward Market) and CO₂ emission allowance prices (EEX primary market).  
Clean Spark Spread (gas power plants' variable cost spread indicator) is the difference between the price of electricity and the estimated variable costs associated with the production of electricity from natural gas (fuel and emission allowances). Clean Spark Spread is an indicator correlated with the profit of the generator producing electricity from natural gas (in reality, it is still necessary to take into account transport costs, operating costs, incurred and planned investment costs, etc.). The analysis of the evolution of this value, together with the CDS, makes it possible to estimate the current financial situation of generation companies.  
The beginning of the bands corresponding to fuel or entitlements under the horizontal axis is due to the negative value of the CSS. The values in grey represent the forecast for 2024. 

• The weighted average price of electricity delivered in a given month is made up of past forward contracts and spot market transactions (DAM and RDB). On the spot, the price of electricity was 408.5 PLN/MWh and reduced the average price of delivered electricity to 432.3 PLN/MWh. If electricity had been supplied solely on the basis of futures contracts concluded last year, the value would have been 448.7 PLN/MWh.

The chart shows the price profiles of electricity traded in three ways: 
*RTT - Commodity Futures Market, where electricity is traded in contracts executed at a contracted future, in weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual contracts; 
*RDN+RDB spot market (Day-Ahead Market and Intraday Market), where electricity is traded for delivery today or tomorrow; 
*OTC (Over-the-Counter) - over-the-counter (OTC) trading, mostly contracts concluded within energy groups. 
The price of electricity delivered in a given month is the average of these three prices, weighted by the volumes of electricity delivered at that price (shown in the chart below). 

• A correlation can be observed between the RES share in electricity production and the electricity price on the spot market. The highest weighted average daily energy price on the DAM market was 569.3 PLN/MWh with a RES share of 17.1%. On the other hand, the lowest electricity price (146.1 PLN/MWh) occurred on the day with the highest RES share in the month - 46.6%.

• On the exchange, turnover (the sum of volumes traded in futures contracts) was 7.4 TWh, 15.2% higher than a year ago (6.4 TWh). This is also 57.3% less than the March average for 2018-22, which is 17.3 TWh.

Knowing the structure of the origin of the delivered volumes makes it possible to determine what proportion of the weighted average price is the result of trading on spot markets, where there is a clear correlation between the structure of the hourly electricity production mix and the price (the greater the production of photovoltaic installations and wind farms, the lower the price). Contracts traded on forward markets, where it is the physical delivery of electricity that takes place many months in advance, allow the risk of future price changes to be priced in. 

• The balance of the cost of coal, oil, gas and fuel imports for December (latest data) was PLN 9.6 billion. In the previous 12 months, we paid a total of almost PLN 111 billion for net imports. It is worth noting that the cost of fuel imports from Russia for December 2024 was PLN 84m (or 0.9% of all import costs), with a cumulative value for 2024 to PLN 1.4bn (LPG only). However, as of 20 December, the embargo on LPG imports from Russia came into effect.

The graph shows the nominal (excluding inflation) monthly cost of imports of energy raw materials and fuels into Poland. This is a net import, i.e. it also includes exports from Poland of these products. 
*The coal category includes: anthracite, lignite, hard coal (thermal and coking coal) and hard and lignite briquettes. 
*The oil category includes crude oil and natural gas condensates. 
*Gas includes both pipeline gas and LNG. 
*Under the fuel category are motor petrol, diesel, LPG (fuel, not reagent) and various types of aviation fuel.