Electricity production
Production from renewable energy sources
In May, renewables accounted for a total of 37.5% (4.9 TWh) of electricity produced. This is not only the largest monthly volume of energy produced from RES, but also the largest share of RES in the energy mix ever. It is worth noting that already in March and April this year, production from RES was at a record high, but in May it reached an even higher volume.
Wind sources accounted for 33.7% of RES generation. This volume amounted to 1.7 TWh. This is 10.9% more than in May 2024, but 4.8% less than in April 2025. The installed capacity of wind power at the beginning of April (latest data) was 10.9 GW.
PV installations produced more energy than wind sources in May, reaching 2.3 TWh (47.7% of RES generation). This is an increase in production of 14.2% m/m and 1.1% y/y. The installed PV capacity at the beginning of March (latest data) was 22.1 GW, of which as much as 12.3 GW were prosumer installations (according to ARE).
Biomass plants produced around 0.8 TWh in May and hydroelectric plants produced 0.1 TWh.
Weather-dependent RES (photovoltaics and wind) produced 3.6% more electricity than coal-fired power plants. Their maximum hourly share of national electricity production reached 59.1% in May, while the minimum was 2.4%. Meanwhile, the largest hourly share of RES in electricity consumption was 71.3%.
In the Polish electricity system, the RES share in electricity consumption (i.e. the ratio of generation from RES to the sum of production from all sources plus imports and storage) is customarily higher than the RES share in production. In situations where the sum of power supplied in a given hour is higher than the current demand, it is necessary to use electricity storage, export surplus energy, or even switch off weather-dependent RES sources.
In May, the need for such non-market redispatch of RES generation units by the operator occurred during twenty-four days. The generation of 182.2 GWh of electricity was curtailed, of which 166.3 GWh from photovoltaics and 15.8 GWh from wind sources. Since the beginning of the year, 589.8 GWh have been curtailed, which is 36% more than in the same period last year.
The graph shows the cumulative annual values (from the beginning of the year to the last day of the reported month) of non-market redispatch (so-called curtailment) of electricity from wind and solar farms.
More than 90 per cent of the reductions in RES energy production were in large-scale photovoltaic installations. The graph below shows the five-year average daily PV generation in May (solid line) and the average production potential (dashed line), which also includes energy not produced due to non-market redispatch. An average of 7.1% of PV generation was curtailed in May this year.
This high level of reduction in RES operation is a result of the need to maintain the stability of the electricity system, the low flexibility of the operation of coal sources and to keep their operation at a technical minimum.
Production from fossil fuels
In May 2025, electricity generation from conventional sources relied more on natural gas than in the previous year. Gas-fired power plants and CHPs produced 1.7 TWh, (down 12.4% m/m and up 89.7% y/y).
Although coal units continued to play a major role in the electricity system in May, their total share of generation fell to less than half. Generation from hard coal was the lowest on record: down 7.9% year-on-year in May and down 4.2% year-on-year in April 2025 (to 3.9 TWh). Production from lignite also fell to a record low of 2.4 TWh. This is a decrease of 15.2% y/y and 4.2% m/m (to 2.4 TWh).
In total, 6.3 TWh of electricity was produced from coal in May (47.8% of the mix). This is a decrease in production of 10.6% y/y and 4.2% m/m. This is also the lowest result ever, and the share of coal in the generation mix remains below 50% for the second consecutive month.
The graph shows the electricity generation mix in Poland by different technologies using fossil fuels or renewable sources. The primary source of electricity is hard coal and lignite, but the share of natural gas and RES continues to grow. Depending on the season, wind power or photovoltaics provide the most energy among renewable sources.
The changes in the structure of electricity generation that have been taking place in recent years are unprecedented. Between May 2015 and May 2025, the use of coal in total decreased by 36.9pc. The systematic development of renewables means that the gap between coal and RES use in the system is shrinking faster and faster. In addition, large natural gas units are starting to play an increasingly important role.
The graph shows how the monthly shares of each source's electricity production in total production have changed over the past few years.
Emissions, demand and imports
In May, estimated emissions reached an all-time low and fell by 5.2% (to 6.2 million tonnes of CO2) compared to April 2025. Compared to May 2024, they were 6.7% lower.
At the same time, electricity demand was very low at 12.6 TWh in May, with a maximum average hourly demand of 20.8 GWh. This compares with a demand of 13.0 TWh in May last year with a maximum hourly demand of 21.9 GWh.
Net imports in May amounted to 0.4 TWh.
May 2025 - details
- The average monthly power demand in May 2025 was 16.9 GW (0.6 GW less than in May a year ago), reaching a maximum of 20.8 GW (minimum - 10.9 GW).
- Electricity consumption was 12.6 TWh (3.6% less than last year), while gross generation was 13.1 TWh (3.1% more y-o-y).
The power demand in the Polish power system varies between 10 GW and 28 GW. The average value illustrates the system situation in a given month. By observing the monthly minima and maxima, it has so far been noticeable that the summer months are characterised by significant power demand variability and high demand peaks around midday. However, these profiles are now changing, due to the dynamic emergence of heat pumps, which increase demand during the winter months, and air conditioners and photovoltaic installations, whose greatest impact can be observed during the summer months.
- Net electricity imports amounted to 0.4 TWh, or 3.2% of domestic demand
In the graph we observe the physical cross-border exchange of electricity, i.e. from which country we import and to which country we export energy in a given period. Addition values indicate that imports were the main direction in a given month and a negative value indicates that energy was mainly exported. Physical exchanges can be forced by system conditions or result from trade flows. The direction of electricity trade is mainly influenced by the price difference in the markets (energy flows from a country with a lower price to a country with a higher price). Cross-border exchanges with Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Sweden and Lithuania take place within the Single Day-ahead Coupling, as well as inter-operator exchanges. The exchange with Ukraine, which became possible from May 2023 thanks to the ENTSO-E decision, takes place within the framework of unilateral monthly auctions announced by PSE. Previously, the exchange only took place unidirectionally from Ukraine to Poland on the Zamość-Dobrotwór connection. Energy exchange with Sweden and Lithuania takes place via a direct current connection (HVDC). The electricity systems of the other countries are synchronised, hence the exchange takes place using alternating current lines (HVAC) and these are physical (not commercial) flows.
- Renewable electricity generation accounted for 37.5% of the generation mix, a share that increased by 1.6 p.p. compared to last year.
The graph shows the share of renewable electricity in total production for a given month and year. The share of renewables in consumption may differ minimally from the visible values due to imports and exports. Since 2015, an expansion of wind sources is visible (higher % of RES in autumn and winter), while a dynamic expansion of photovoltaics (higher % of RES in spring and summer) is visible since 2020.
- Wind power produced 12.6% of electricity (1.7 TWh, or 33.7% of RES production), photovoltaics were responsible for 17.9% (2.3 TWh - 47.7% of RES), 1.1% came from hydropower (0.1 TWh - 2.8% of RES) and 5.9% from biomass (0.8 TWh - 15.8% of RES).
- Fossil fuels accounted for the remaining 62.5% of electricity: hard coal 29.5% (3.9 TWh), lignite 18.3% (2.4 TWh), natural gas 13.1% (1.7 TWh) and other fossil fuels 1.6% (0.2 TWh).
In the graph we see the percentage shares of electricity production by source.
- Coal prices for power plants (PSCMI1 index) fell by 1.1% during the month, to PLN 16.4/GJ (approx. PLN 354/t). Coal for district heating (PSCMI2 index) costs PLN 20.5/GJ (approx. PLN 478/t), down 1.3% on the previous month.
- The weighted average price of natural gas delivered in May fell by 6.7% against April, to PLN 176.2/MWh, i.e. 9.6% less than a year ago
The chart shows coal, gas prices on Polish and international markets, converted to a common unit (PL/MWh of energy in fuel) for comparability.
*For coal, the domestic market is represented by the PSCMI1 index and the international market by the ARGUS-McCloskey CIF ARA API 2 index.
*Natural gas in the domestic market is the weighted average (from POLPX data) delivery price for the month, while the international market for pipeline gas is represented by the TTF exchange index and for LNG by the Henry Hub index.
For completeness, the chart also shows the price of CO2 emission allowances from the primary market (trading on EEX).
- Emissions from the electricity sector were estimated at 6.2 million tonnes of CO2, 6.7% lower than the previous year and 5.2% lower than in April this year.
Knowing the structure of electricity generation allows carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation to be calculated. CO2 emissions are calculated on the basis of reference fuel benchmarks adopted by the Energy Forum and calibrated to the reported emissions of the previous year.
- Equalised delivery in each hour of the day ahead (in the so-called strip - BASE instrument) was traded 0.9% higher at an average of 413.9 PLN/MWh, and in peak hours (PEAK5) 0.8% lower at 457.5 PLN/MWh. The pricing of supplies on the SPOT market (DAM) increased by 12.6%, to 413.8 PLN/MWh. The weighted average hourly price on this market ranged from -417.8 PLN/MWh to 1443.8 PLN/MWh.
The graph shows a comparison of the weighted average monthly prices on the POLPX. The Commodity Forward Market covers approximately 80% of the energy sales volume on the Polish Power Exchange.
The two most important instruments relate to the delivery of energy around the clock (BASE) and from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. (PEAK5). The contracts are concluded with delivery in the future (max. 3 years). The vast majority of transactions on the exchange are for the purchase of energy with delivery in the coming calendar year (n+1).
On the basis of the contracts concluded in a given month, the volume-weighted average BASE_n+1 and PEAK5_n+1 indexes were calculated. This reflects the long-term situation on the electricity market.
In contrast, the TGeBase Index relates to the Day-Ahead Market (with next-day delivery) - it reflects the current market situation and is characterised by high volatility. The weighted monthly average is usually lower than the prices in the Forward Market and seasonal dependencies are negligible.
- The weighted average price of CO2 emission allowances (EUAs) on the primary market was EUR 70.4/tCO2, i.e. 9.8% higher than the month before. In May, Poland's budget received PLN 1.3 billion as a result of the sale of CO2 emission allowances on the primary market (EEX exchange), and PLN 6.8 billion since the beginning of the year.
- The CDS (Clean Dark Spread), an indicator of the margin of coal-fired power plants, amounted to PLN-1.4/MWh in May, representing -0.3% of the weighted average wholesale price of electricity delivered in that month. Over the course of the year, the index has fallen by around 22.2 PLN/MWh (it was 20.8 PLN/MWh at the time). According to the current forecast, the CDS will average PLN 25/MWh in 2025, representing 5.5% of the weighted average wholesale price of delivered electricity.
The graph shows the Clean Dark Spread calculated from: historical contracts (BASE, PEAK, OFFPEAK) weighted by the share of deliveries in a given month (POLPX Commodity Futures Market), spot market contracts (POLPX Day-Ahead Market), coal prices (PSCMI1) and CO2 emission allowance prices (EEX primary market).
The Clean Dark Spread (coal-fired power plant variable cost spread indicator) is the difference between the electricity price and the estimated variable costs associated with coal-fired power generation (fuel and emission allowances). The Clean Dark Spread is an indicator correlated with the profit of the generator, producing electricity from coal (in reality, it is still necessary to take into account transport costs, operating costs, incurred and planned investment costs, etc.). The analysis of the evolution of this value, together with the CSS, allows the estimation of the current financial situation of the generating companies.
The beginning of the bands corresponding to fuel or entitlements under the horizontal axis is due to the negative value of the CDS. The values in grey represent the forecast for 2024.
- The CSS (Clean Spark Spread), which is the equivalent of the CDS for gas-fired power plants, was 25.9 PLN/MWh this month. In May 2024, it was about 51.1 PLN/MWh higher (then 76.9 PLN/MWh). According to the current forecast, the CSS in 2025 will average PLN 24.3/MWh, representing 5.3% of the weighted average wholesale delivered price of electricity.
The graph shows the Clean Spark Spread calculated based on: historical contracts (BASE, PEAK, OFFPEAK) weighted by the share of deliveries in a given month (POLPX Commodity Forward Market), spot market contracts (POLPX Day-Ahead Market), natural gas prices (POLPX Commodity Forward Market) and CO2 emission allowance prices (EEX primary market).
Clean Spark Spread (gas power plants' variable cost spread indicator) is the difference between the price of electricity and the estimated variable costs associated with the production of electricity from natural gas (fuel and emission allowances). Clean Spark Spread is an indicator correlated with the profit of the generator producing electricity from natural gas (in reality, it is still necessary to take into account transport costs, operating costs, incurred and planned investment costs, etc.). The analysis of the evolution of this value, together with the CDS, makes it possible to estimate the current financial situation of generation companies.
The beginning of the bands corresponding to fuel or entitlements under the horizontal axis is due to the negative value of the CSS. The values in grey represent the forecast for 2024.
- The weighted average price of electricity delivered in a given month is made up of past forward contracts and spot market transactions (DAM and RDB). On the spot, the price of electricity was 413.8 PLN/MWh and reduced the average price of delivered electricity to 425.9 PLN/MWh. If electricity had been supplied solely on the basis of last year's forward contracts, the value would have been 434.1 PLN/MWh.
The chart shows the price profiles of electricity traded in three ways:
*RTT - Commodity Futures Market, where electricity is traded in contracts executed at a contracted future, in weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual contracts;
*RDN+RDB spot market (Day-Ahead Market and Intraday Market), where electricity is traded for delivery today or tomorrow;
*OTC (Over-the-Counter) - over-the-counter (OTC) trading, mostly contracts concluded within energy groups.
The price of electricity delivered in a given month is the average of these three prices, weighted by the volumes of electricity delivered at that price (shown in the chart below).
- A correlation can be observed between the RES share in electricity production and the electricity price on the spot market. The highest weighted average hourly energy price on the DAM market was 1443.8 PLN/MWh with a RES share of 18.6%. On the other hand, the lowest electricity price (-417.8 PLN/MWh) occurred in an hour with a RES share of 55.3%. On top of this, most hours with a high RES share were characterised by a price below the weighted average.
Pierwszy wykres przedstawia rozkład średnioważonych cen na Rynku Dnia Następnego oraz udział OZE w poszczególnych dniach w miesiącu. Przy zwiększonym udziale OZE ceny energii elektrycznej maleją.
Na drugim wykresie punkty odpowiadają poszczególnym dniom w miesiącu, a nachylenie linii trendu pokazuje zależność cen energii elektrycznej od udziału OZE w produkcji energii elektrycznej.
- On the exchange, turnover (the sum of volumes of futures contracts concluded) amounted to 5.3 TWh, 17.4% less than a year ago (4.6 TWh). This is still 65.5% less than the average for May in 2018-22, which is 15.5 TWh.
Knowing the structure of the origin of the delivered volumes makes it possible to determine what proportion of the weighted average price is the result of trading on spot markets, where there is a clear correlation between the structure of the hourly electricity production mix and the price (the greater the production of photovoltaic installations and wind farms, the lower the price). Contracts traded on forward markets, where it is the physical delivery of electricity that takes place many months in advance, allow the risk of future price changes to be priced in.
- The balance of the cost of coal, oil, gas and fuel imports for February (the latest figures) was PLN 7.6 billion. In the previous 12 months, we paid a total of over PLN 110 billion for net imports. It should be noted that since the embargo on LPG imports from Russia, introduced at the end of 2024, imports from this direction have fallen to zero.
The graph shows the nominal (excluding inflation) monthly cost of imports of energy raw materials and fuels into Poland. This is a net import, i.e. it also includes exports from Poland of these products.
*The coal category includes: anthracite, lignite, hard coal (thermal and coking coal) and hard and lignite briquettes.
*The oil category includes crude oil and natural gas condensates.
*Gas includes both pipeline gas and LNG.
*Under the fuel category are motor petrol, diesel, LPG (fuel, not reagent) and various types of aviation fuel.