Electricity production
Production from renewable energy sources
In January 2025, renewable sources accounted for a total of 26.3% (4.4 TWh) of electricity generated. Wind sources were responsible for the vast majority of RES generation (75.2%). This volume amounted to 3.3 TWh, which is the highest historical value in Poland. This is 8.2% more than in January 2024 and 25.9% more than in December 2024. Installed wind power capacity at the beginning of November was 10.5 GW. It is also worth mentioning that January saw a record monthly wind curtailment of 32.2 GWh.
PV installations in January reached a production level of 0.3 TWh, an increase of 38.4% m/m and 22.6% y/y. PV installed capacity at the beginning of October was 20.2 GW, of which as much as 11.9 GW were prosumer installations.
Biomass plants produced around 0.7 TWh in January and hydro plants 0.1 TWh.
The maximum hourly share of RES in national electricity production reached 50.2% in January, while the minimum was 5.6%. Meanwhile, the largest hourly share of RES in electricity consumption was 61.5%.
In the Polish electricity system, the share of RES in electricity consumption (i.e. the ratio of generation from RES to the sum of production from all sources plus imports and storage) is customarily higher than the share of renewable sources in production. In situations where the sum of supplied power in a given hour is higher than the current demand, it is necessary to use electricity storage, export or even switch off RES sources.
In January, the need for such non-market redispatch of generation units by the operator occurred during four days. In total, 32.3 GWh of electricity generation was reduced (and this only applied to wind power plants). January 2025 was the month with the historically highest volume of generation reductions from wind. It was 11.4 GWh in December, and there were no RES curtailments in January 2024.
The graph shows the cumulative annual values (from the beginning of the year to the last day of the reported month) of non-market redispatch (so-called curtailment) of electricity from wind and solar farms.
Production from fossil fuels
In January 2025, electricity generation from conventional sources relied more heavily on natural gas than a year ago. Gas-fired power plants and CHPs produced 2.2 TWh, (down 3.0% m/m and up 10.8% y/y) due in part to the new 1.4 GW in Gryfino. This is the second largest result ever just after November 2024.
However, the electricity system was dominated by coal units in January - lignite and hard coal power stations cannot go below the technical minimum, which results in a reduction, at certain times, in the production of wind power plants. This is a characteristic of an electricity system dominated by inflexible conventional units. Production from hard coal increased by 4.7% relative to January last year, declined by 0.6% (to 6.3 TWh) relative to December 2024. Production from lignite recorded an increase of 13.4% y/y and 8.3% m/m (to 3.6 TWh).
In total, 9.9 TWh of electricity (58.9% of the mix) was produced from coal in January. This is an increase of 7.7% y/y and 2.5% m/m.
The graph shows the electricity generation mix in Poland by different technologies using fossil fuels or renewable sources. The primary source of electricity is hard coal and lignite, but the share of natural gas and RES continues to grow. Depending on the season, wind power or photovoltaics provide the most energy among renewable sources.
The changes in the structure of electricity generation that have been taking place in recent years are unprecedented. Between January 2015 and January 2025, the use of coal overall decreased by 21.2 p.p. The systematic development of renewables means that the gap between coal and RES use in the system is shrinking faster and faster. In addition, large natural gas units are starting to play an increasingly important role.
The graph shows how the monthly shares of each source's electricity production in total production have changed over the past few years.
Emissions, demand and imports
In January, estimated emissions increased by 2.9% (to 9.5 million tonnes of CO2) compared to December last year. Compared to January 2024, they were 8.2% higher due to the higher share of coal in the electricity generation mix.
Electricity demand was 14.7 TWh in January, with a maximum average hourly demand of 24.8 GWh. This compares with a demand of just under 16 TWh in January last year, with a maximum hourly demand of 28.3 GWh.
Net exports in January were significant at 0.9 TWh. Previously it had reached this level in September 2021.
January 2025 - details
- The average monthly power demand in January 2025 was 19.7 GW (1.8 GW less than in January a year ago), reaching a maximum of 24.8 GW (minimum - 12.5 GW).
- Electricity consumption was 14.7 TWh (8.3% less than last year), while gross generation was 16.8 TWh (6.5% more y/y).
The power demand in the Polish power system varies between 10 GW and 28 GW. The average value illustrates the system situation in a given month. By observing the monthly minima and maxima, it has so far been noticeable that the summer months are characterised by significant power demand variability and high demand peaks around midday. However, these profiles are now changing, due to the dynamic emergence of heat pumps, which increase demand during the winter months, and air conditioners and photovoltaic installations, whose greatest impact can be observed during the summer months.
- Net electricity exports amounted to 0.9 TWh, or 6.1% of domestic demand.
In the graph we observe the physical cross-border exchange of electricity, i.e. from which country we import and to which country we export energy in a given period. Addition values indicate that imports were the main direction in a given month and a negative value indicates that energy was mainly exported. Physical exchanges can be forced by system conditions or result from trade flows. The direction of electricity trade is mainly influenced by the price difference in the markets (energy flows from a country with a lower price to a country with a higher price). Cross-border exchanges with Germany, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Sweden and Lithuania take place within the Single Day-ahead Coupling, as well as inter-operator exchanges. The exchange with Ukraine, which became possible from May 2023 thanks to the ENTSO-E decision, takes place within the framework of unilateral monthly auctions announced by PSE. Previously, the exchange only took place unidirectionally from Ukraine to Poland on the Zamość-Dobrotwór connection. Energy exchange with Sweden and Lithuania takes place via a direct current connection (HVDC). The electricity systems of the other countries are synchronised, hence the exchange takes place using alternating current lines (HVAC) and these are physical (not commercial) flows.
- Electricity production from RES accounted for 26.3% of the generation mix, a share that decreased by 1.1 p.p. from last year.
The graph shows the share of renewable electricity in total production for a given month and year. The share of renewables in consumption may differ minimally from the visible values due to imports and exports. Since 2015, an expansion of wind sources is visible (higher % of RES in autumn and winter), while a dynamic expansion of photovoltaics (higher % of RES in spring and summer) is visible since 2020.
- Among renewable sources, wind farms produced 19.8% of electricity (3.3 TWh, or 75.2% of RES production), photovoltaics were responsible for 1.6% (0.3 TWh - 5.9% of RES), 0.9% came from hydropower (0.1 TWh - 3.3% of RES) and 4.1% from biomass (0.7 TWh - 15.6% of RES).
- Pumped storage power plants were responsible for the production of 0.03 TWh of electricity. This is 30.7% more than in December.
- Fossil fuels accounted for the remaining 73.7% of electricity: hard coal 37.6% (6.3 TWh), lignite 21.3% (3.6 TWh), natural gas 13.1% (2.2 TWh) and other fossil fuels 1.6% (0.3 TWh).
In the graph we see the percentage shares of electricity production by source.
- Coal prices for power plants (PSCMI1 index) fell by 2.2% during the month to 20.8 PLN/GJ (approx. 458 PLN/t). Coal for district heating (PSCMI2 index) costs PLN 23.2/GJ (approx. PLN 546/t), up 7.7% on the previous month.
- The weighted average price of natural gas delivered in January fell by 5.4% compared to December, to PLN 202.1/MWh, 8.5% less than a year ago.
The chart shows coal, gas prices on Polish and international markets, converted to a common unit (PL/MWh of energy in fuel) for comparability.
*For coal, the domestic market is represented by the PSCMI1 index and the international market by the ARGUS-McCloskey CIF ARA API 2 index.
*Natural gas in the domestic market is the weighted average (from POLPX data) delivery price for the month, while the international market for pipeline gas is represented by the TTF exchange index and for LNG by the Henry Hub index.
For completeness, the chart also shows the price of CO2 emission allowances from the primary market (trading on EEX).
- Emissions from the electricity sector were estimated at 9.5 million tonnes of CO2, 8.2% more than a year ago and 2.9% more than in December.
Knowing the structure of electricity generation allows carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation to be calculated. CO2 emissions are calculated on the basis of reference fuel benchmarks adopted by the Energy Forum and calibrated to the reported emissions of the previous year.
- A price rebound has been observed on the power exchange. Equalised supply in each hour of the day ahead (in the so-called strip - BASE instrument) was traded 6.6% higher at an average of 458.8 PLN/MWh, and in peak hours (PEAK5) 3.6% higher at 515.8 PLN/MWh. The pricing of supplies on the SPOT market (RDN) increased by 3.9%, to 474.3 PLN/MWh. Prices on this market ranged from -52 PLN/MWh to 1375 PLN/MWh.
- In addition, exceptionally this month, 744 MWh were contracted on the RTT market at 390 PLN/MWh in the OFFPEAK contract. Such contracts cover off-peak hours, i.e. on weekdays 00:00-08:00 and 20:00-24:00 and on weekends and holidays 00:00-24:00. The last time an OFFPEAK contract appeared was in March 2023.
The graph shows a comparison of the weighted average monthly prices on the POLPX. The Commodity Forward Market covers approximately 80% of the energy sales volume on the Polish Power Exchange.
The two most important instruments relate to the delivery of energy around the clock (BASE) and from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. (PEAK5). The contracts are concluded with delivery in the future (max. 3 years). The vast majority of transactions on the exchange are for the purchase of energy with delivery in the coming calendar year (n+1).
On the basis of the contracts concluded in a given month, the volume-weighted average BASE_n+1 and PEAK5_n+1 indexes were calculated. This reflects the long-term situation on the electricity market.
In contrast, the TGeBase Index relates to the Day-Ahead Market (with next-day delivery) - it reflects the current market situation and is characterised by high volatility. The weighted monthly average is usually lower than the prices in the Forward Market and seasonal dependencies are negligible.
- The weighted average price of CO2 emission allowances (EUAs) on the primary market was EUR 75.9/tCO2, i.e. 12.8% higher than a month earlier. In January, Poland's budget received PLN 1.3 billion as a result of the sale of CO2 emission allowances on the primary market (EEX exchange).
- The CDS (Clean Dark Spread), an indicator of the margin of coal-fired power plants, was -24.3 PLN/MWh in January. Over the course of the year, this indicator fell by approximately 107.2 PLN/MWh (it was 83 PLN/MWh at the time).
The graph shows the Clean Dark Spread calculated from: historical contracts (BASE, PEAK, OFFPEAK) weighted by the share of deliveries in a given month (POLPX Commodity Futures Market), spot market contracts (POLPX Day-Ahead Market), coal prices (PSCMI1) and CO2 emission allowance prices (EEX primary market).
The Clean Dark Spread (coal-fired power plant variable cost spread indicator) is the difference between the electricity price and the estimated variable costs associated with coal-fired power generation (fuel and emission allowances). The Clean Dark Spread is an indicator correlated with the profit of the generator, producing electricity from coal (in reality, it is still necessary to take into account transport costs, operating costs, incurred and planned investment costs, etc.). The analysis of the evolution of this value, together with the CSS, allows the estimation of the current financial situation of the generating companies.
The beginning of the bands corresponding to fuel or entitlements under the horizontal axis is due to the negative value of the CDS. The values in grey represent the forecast for 2024.
- The CSS (Clean Spark Spread), the equivalent of the CDS for gas-fired power plants, was 11.9 PLN/MWh this month. In January 2024, it was around 75.4 PLN/MWh higher (then 87.3 PLN/MWh).
The graph shows the Clean Spark Spread calculated based on: historical contracts (BASE, PEAK, OFFPEAK) weighted by the share of deliveries in a given month (POLPX Commodity Forward Market), spot market contracts (POLPX Day-Ahead Market), natural gas prices (POLPX Commodity Forward Market) and CO2 emission allowance prices (EEX primary market).
Clean Spark Spread (gas power plants' variable cost spread indicator) is the difference between the price of electricity and the estimated variable costs associated with the production of electricity from natural gas (fuel and emission allowances). Clean Spark Spread is an indicator correlated with the profit of the generator producing electricity from natural gas (in reality, it is still necessary to take into account transport costs, operating costs, incurred and planned investment costs, etc.). The analysis of the evolution of this value, together with the CDS, makes it possible to estimate the current financial situation of generation companies.
The beginning of the bands corresponding to fuel or entitlements under the horizontal axis is due to the negative value of the CSS. The values in grey represent the forecast for 2024.
- The weighted average price of electricity delivered in a given month is made up of past forward contracts and spot market transactions (DAM and RDB). On the spot, the price of electricity was 474.3 PLN/MWh and increased the average price of delivered electricity to 463.6 PLN/MWh. If electricity had been supplied solely on the basis of futures contracts concluded last year, the value would have been 454.1 PLN/MWh. For comparison, in December 2024 the average price was 557 PLN/MWh.
The chart shows the price profiles of electricity traded in three ways:
*RTT - Commodity Futures Market, where electricity is traded in contracts executed at a contracted future, in weekly, monthly, quarterly and annual contracts;
*RDN+RDB spot market (Day-Ahead Market and Intraday Market), where electricity is traded for delivery today or tomorrow;
*OTC (Over-the-Counter) - over-the-counter (OTC) trading, mostly contracts concluded within energy groups.
The price of electricity delivered in a given month is the average of these three prices, weighted by the volumes of electricity delivered at that price (shown in the chart below).
- On the exchange, turnover (the sum of volumes traded in futures contracts) was 4 TWh, 30% less than a year ago (5.7 TWh), but o This is also 55.3% less than the January 2018-22 average of 8.9 TWh.
Knowing the structure of the origin of the delivered volumes makes it possible to determine what proportion of the weighted average price is the result of trading on spot markets, where there is a clear correlation between the structure of the hourly electricity production mix and the price (the greater the production of photovoltaic installations and wind farms, the lower the price). Contracts traded on forward markets, where it is the physical delivery of electricity that takes place many months in advance, allow the risk of future price changes to be priced in.
- The balance of the cost of coal, oil, gas and fuel imports for October (the latest figures) was PLN 9 billion. In the previous 12 months, we paid a total of almost PLN 112 billion for net imports. It is worth noting that the cost of fuel imports from Russia for October 2024 was PLN 115m (or 1.3% of all import costs), and the cumulative value for 2024 to October was PLN 1.2bn (LPG only). However, an embargo on LPG imports from Russia came into effect on 20 December.
The graph shows the nominal (excluding inflation) monthly cost of imports of energy raw materials and fuels into Poland. This is a net import, i.e. it also includes exports from Poland of these products.
*The coal category includes: anthracite, lignite, hard coal (thermal and coking coal) and hard and lignite briquettes.
*The oil category includes crude oil and natural gas condensates.
*Gas includes both pipeline gas and LNG.
*Under the fuel category are motor petrol, diesel, LPG (fuel, not reagent) and various types of aviation fuel.