According to the announcements of the incumbent opposition parties, which will soon form the new Polish government, the development of RES should significantly accelerate in the coming months and years. These are important declarations. In this context, wise planning and consistent implementation of new renewable sources in the energy generation mix - with special attention to system stability and security of supply - becomes a priority. In order to lead an effective energy transition, not only regulations are needed, but also good and modern computational tools. The world is changing rapidly - the winner is the one who is able to strategically plan, but also respond to change and minimize costs. To make these challenges possible, the Forum Energii, together with Enercode, has taken on the task of building an open energy model to support planning for the modernization of Poland's energy sector. The project will include a series of analyses of the development of the energy mix and electricity grid - both at the national level and in local governments.
Modeling
In the coming months, we will jointly develop the "Zefir for the country" energy model to best reflect the electricity system. The name of the project has a symbolic meaning – Zephyr (Zefir) is a warm, gentle wind from the west. We hope that our project will support the winds of change in energy and climate policy in Poland. Our goal is to improve planning, optimize transition costs and increase the potential of renewables energy.
In the near future, Enercode will perform the technical work of expanding and parameterizing the model, using the Forum Energii's knowledge of energy market operations, climate policy and technological solutions. However, in order to increase the transparency of the process and make the tool as precise as possible, we will invite the best experts associated with the sector to co-create it.
"Zefir for the country" is not the first energy model in Poland. However, most of those currently in operation are based solely on energy sources - and do not take into account new developments and real barriers to delivering energy to consumers. In our work, we will fill in these gaps, taking into account prosumer self-consumption, integration of district heating with electricity, specifics of local power generation, electromobility and green hydrogen development, among others. Ultimately, the model should also take into account grid constraints. Moreover, the project's data is being collected in such a way as to enable future modeling of grid spreads. Such an exercise will make it possible to estimate the cost and timing of grid development for renewable development.
Cooperation between Enercode and Forum Energii
The strength of both teams is diversity - combining regulatory and market development experience with advanced use of mathematical modeling tools. This approach is in line with the trend of increasing digitalization and the use of algorithms for energy development. By combining competencies, we will be able to demonstrate in our analyses how to cost-effectively plan for the transition to climate neutrality at the local and national levels. This is because we are convinced that getting to climate neutrality depends on wise and good use of data, building new generating units, but also looking for cost reduction pathways and better use of existing resources.
Enercode's cooperation with Forum Energii has been growing for years, but the expansion of the energy model is the largest joint venture to date. As part of the project "Beyond 60%" (the name refers to the ambition to increase the share of RES in the mix) we will analyze different scenarios for the development of renewables, taking into account the role of offshore wind energy in Poland's transition. Offshore access is a strategic advantage for Poland, which should be reflected in the country's plans. The potential for offshore development is estimated at 33 GW. As part of the work, we will analyze what the implementation of this plan will entail and how it fits into the needs of energy modernization. The " Beyond 60%" project is supported by the European Climate Hub, a joint initiative of the Allianz Foundation and Climate Imperative.
However, the origins of the cooperation between Forum Energii and Enercode date back to 2019, when we jointly developed Forumetr, an online tool that allows us to keep track of, among other things, prices, the generation mix and the carbon footprint of electricity production in Poland and neighboring countries.
Local energy planning
Starting in 2022, Enercode and Forum Energii are also collaborating on the project LeadAir, in which we are helping five Polish cities plan their energy transformation. They are: Warsaw, Rybnik, Włocławek, Rawicz and Piastów. This collaboration uses Enercode's "Zefir for Local Governments" computational model[1] , which develops roadmaps showing cost-optimal pathways for reducing smog and harmful greenhouse gas emissions and achieving climate neutrality.
Since 2023, Forum Energii has been supporting the development of the local government Zefir model[2] , so that it can also be used in other Polish cities.
Ultimately, all the models we are working on - both for the country and for local governments - will be publicly available (open source) along with a database. The final fruit of our work will therefore be not only reports, but also publicly available tools for planning the energy transition of the country and local governments.
[1] The Zefir prototype was developed as part of the KLASTER project - which involved the NCBJ, AGH, the IOC and the MoD."
[2] The initial version of the Zefir tool was built by Inters NCBJ under NCBiR funding.