We are now at the midpoint of the current Multiannual Financial Framework. Looking back at the implementation to date, it is important to acknowledge that the Just Transition Mechanism, and in particular the Just Transition Fund (JTF), were new instruments that required significant institutional and administrative adjustments from all stakeholders. The regulation establishing the JTF was adopted in June 2021. The majority of the Territorial Just Transition Plans (TJTPs) had been approved by the European Commission by the end of 2022, with only the Bulgarian one completed in 2023. At this point, the programming of the JTF was effectively finished and implementation could finally commence.

Negotiations on the EU’s next Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for 2028–2034 are now underway. At the same time, Poland has initiated preparing its National and Regional Partnership Plan (NRPP), which will determine how future EU resources are programmed and distributed domestically. The stakes extend well beyond the overall size of the budget. The key question is whether, in a context of fiscal constraints and revised national programming rules, EU funds will be channelled into long-term, system-critical investments or diverted toward projects that are easier to implement or less contentious politically. Poland’s future economic growth will depend on the coherence of its investment framework and the accompanying reforms. Together, these factors will determine whether EU funding accelerates the energy transition and strengthens long-term competitiveness. Poland’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP)1 should serve as the primary reference point for programming. Alignment between the MFF and the NECP will be decisive in turning EU funds into an instrument of real economic transformation, rather than a mechanism for short-term spending.

Nearly a decade ago, the first work began on the concept of a capacity market in Poland. For the European Commission, it was a support mechanism for electricity producers. For the transmission system operator, it is a vital part of the energy market, providing tools to maintain required reserves and mitigate the risk of capacity shortages. Today, we can summarise the effects and the scale of the costs of the capacity market’s operation in Poland for the years 2021 to 2046—approximately PLN 200 billion. This means that the discussion on energy security cannot be limited solely to capacity itself. Security should also be understood as the ability to deliver electricity to consumers at all times and the certainty that this energy will be affordable. In view of the announcements regarding the continuation of support through the capacity market, a key question arises: is Poland achieving its goal of capacity adequacy and security of supply effectively, or rather is it entrenching a “capacity at any cost” approach?

Critical raw materials (CRMs) sit at the core of the EU’s clean transition: from batteries and wind turbines to grids and solar panels. With supply chains concentrated and exposed to geopolitical risk, the EU is increasingly looking to partnerships with like-minded countries. In this context, Ukraine has geological potential in some CRMs relevant to the EU’s clean transition, but its current role in EU supply chains remains marginal. Ukraine exported only two CRMs to the EU as primary raw materials – titanium and natural graphite – together accounting for less than 0.2% of Ukraine’s exports to the EU in 2024. We present the report “Critical raw materials in the energy transition: assessing Ukraine's potential for EU supply chain” prepared under Green Deal Ukraїna (GDU), a German-Polish-Ukrainian project, which was implemented as part of the European Programme at Forum Energii, with Forum Energii as a project partner.

2025_wrapped is a concise, data-first set of interactive charts. We have highlighted the most important trends in Poland’s power sector over the past year and the last decade. This New Year’s wrap-up is a warm-up ahead of our full report Energy Transition in Poland. Edition 2026, to be published this spring.

Ukraine successfully navigated the 2024-2025 heating season, a crucial test, aided by favorable weather, international support, and domestic efforts to restore infrastructure and develop new distributed and decentralized generation capacities. The energy system’s future stability now depends on protecting infrastructure, integrating new capacities, and addressing financial challenges in the sector.

Forum Energii has published the first edition of its report Heating Sector Transition in Poland. 2025 Edition, which will now be published in English annually. The document shows that heating—encompassing both district heating systems and individual heating—constitutes the second-largest energy sector in Poland, crucial not only for air quality but also for the country’s energy security, fuel balance, and the reduction of raw material imports. The effectiveness of the heat generation transition will determine not only the burden on household budgets, but also the future of several hundred heating plants operating across Poland. The price crisis of recent years has shown that the sector’s challenges extend well beyond smog to include rising heating costs and slow technological modernisation. The Forum Energii report is intended to serve as a comprehensive knowledge base for the heating sector and as a support for the development of a coherent, long-term strategy for the industry.

Poland’s energy transition is gaining momentum, and although it still lacks coherent and strategic policy documents to guide it. there are now tangible results: in 2024, coal’s share in electricity production fell to a record low of 56.2%. At the same time, the role of renewable energy sources (RES) is growing, with their share in electricity generation reaching 29.4%. However, the development of RES continues to be hindered by legislative barriers and a lack of institutional coordination (among ministries, regulators, system operators, and local governments). Poland has completely stopped importing gas and coal from Russia but is becoming increasingly dependent on other suppliers—in 2023, energy imports reached 45%. The eighth edition of the report Energy Transition in Poland. Edition 2025 by Forum Energii shows that while change is happening, it remains inconsistent, costly, and insufficient in the face of current challenges. 

For more than three years, the European Union has been reducing its dependence on Russian fossil fuels, treating this as a key element of its security policy, which at the same time is consistent with its climate policy. Despite the introduction of initiatives such as the RePowerEU plan or the roadmap published in May 2025 to move away from energy imports from Russia, member states are still spending billions of euros on Russian raw materials. In a new report entitled The energy security of the European Union. How to become independent from Russian fuels by the end of 2027? Forum Energii, and independent think tank from Poland supporting the energy transition, and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), an independent think tank that monitors the impact of the energy sector on the climate, the economy, and public health, show that complete independence of the EU from Russian energy sources is possible. However, it requires concrete action and solidarity compliance with sanctions by all member states.

In the first six months of this year, Poland wasted the potential to generate nearly 800 GWh of electricity from renewable energy sources—more than in the entire year of 2024. The growing mismatch between energy consumption and the output of wind and solar power plants is driving up the cost of operating the system month by month. Meanwhile, demand for electricity is increasing during the winter when there is less sunlight and some days are windless. At the same time, costly and depreciated coal units are approaching decommissioning. Two key needs emerge: making the system more flexible, and encouraging investments in new capacity that can operate effectively under the new system. These challenges, along with an analysis of the relationship between capacity adequacy and system flexibility, and recommendations for a reformed capacity market, are addressed in the latest report by Forum Energii, developed in cooperation with Magnus Energy, a pan-European energy transition consultancy, titled Capacity and Flexibility: What Kind of Capacity Market Does a Modern Power System Need?