Compared to the energy system’s resources available before the Russian invasion, Ukraine now has only a quarter of its production capacity. Insufficient energy supplies mean that this winter many parts of Ukraine may be deprived of not only electricity but also heat and running water for significant portions of the day. Russia has consistently targeted and destroyed Ukrainian energy infrastructure to try to paralyse the economy and break the society’s will to defend against the Russian aggression and force the Kyiv authorities to capitulate to Russia on its terms. This report analyses the current state of the Ukrainian energy system and proposes solutions to reduce the risk of a humanitarian disaster in the country.

The European Council decided on December 14 to open accession negotiations with Ukraine. In the coming months and years, Ukraine will have to do the arduous, technical work of implementing EU regulations. This includes the energy sector. In the roadmap prepared by the Green Deal Ukraïna project, in which Forum Energii is a partner, we identify the most urgent areas of energy and climate reform for Ukraine and take a closer look at the accession negotiations.

Ukraine has prepared relatively well for the heating season, despite the Russian invasion and subsequent war, which has been ongoing for more than six months. The accumulated stocks of coal and gas are likely to be sufficient to ensure heat and electricity supply. The decline in demand for electric power due to reduced economic activity during the war is greater than the lost generation potential, enabling Ukraine to export electricity to the EU. The biggest challenge will be to secure heating if the Russian shelling of CHP plants intensifies. This could cause a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine and increase the number of refugees.