To lead an effective energy transition, you need not only regulations, but also good, modern computing tools. The world is changing rapidly - the winner will be the one who is able to plan strategically, but also react to changes and minimize costs. In order to meet these challenges, the Energy Forum, together with Enercode, has taken on the task of building an open energy model that will support the planning of the modernization of the Polish energy sector, taking into account the acceleration of the development of renewable energy sources.  

Household electricity prices in recent months bore little relation to real production costs, were kept artificially low and treated as an interface with voters. State intervention in this area was necessary in 2022 due to unprecedented price increases on the markets. If the price-freezing mechanisms expire as planned at the end of 2023, electricity prices for households could rise by up to 68% in January. The impact of price spikes should be mitigated. We are proposing a package of solutions: an energy voucher, support for distribution tariffs, additional money for improving the energy efficiency of buildings and a special tariff for heating buildings with electricity.

EU countries depend on cooperation with Russia in the nuclear field. This has resulted in Rosatom not being sanctioned after the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and trade in this sector is growing. This situation is disadvantageous for the EU and increases its vulnerability to Russian blackmail. Moreover, it strengthens the Russian military. The EU should increase its efforts to diversify supplies and build its own capabilities in the nuclear sector.

The National Power System (NPS) will face new challenges. These include the uninterrupted supply of energy to consumers when the oldest and most emission-intensive generating units are phased out, but also the efficient use of variable RES sources. District heating may be the key to solving NPS problems. In peak demand of the NPS, additional energy can be provided by cogeneration units, in times of surplus energy in the system - it can be absorbed by electric boilers producing cheap heat. The operation of CHP units can also improve the performance of electricity grids.

Over the past two years, natural gas has become a high-risk fuel: it is subject to huge price fluctuations and, following the disruption of supplies from Russia, competition for imports of this resource from other sources is increasing. Not long ago, there were plans in Poland to significantly increase the consumption of natural gas throughout the economy - by 75% by 2035. It was supposed to be a transition fuel.

The development of renewable energy sources is one of the most urgent needs of the Polish energy system. RES lower energy costs, reduce emissions and increase energy security. However, although energy companies, industry, local authorities and individual consumers are interested in investments in RES, the further development of new, emission-free energy sources has been a challenge. One of the main problems is the denial of connection capacity to new RES investments. In addition to the necessary grid investments, a more efficient use of the existing infrastructure is needed to solve this problem. One of the tools available is cable pooling - enabling the interconnection of RES sources.

2022 was another year of unexpected events. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine changed Europe’s approach to fossil fuel imports, particularly from Russia. The resulting energy crisis triggered by high gas prices and the decline in nuclear and hydroelectric production led to record high energy prices across Europe. These events are changing the way European countries look at the energy transition. Meanwhile, the modernisation of the Polish energy sector is still very slow. An overview of the increasingly comprehensive data on the energy sector is published by Forum Energii in the sixth edition of the report ‘Energy Transition in Poland. Edition 2023’.

If Poland does not come to an agreement on the NRP in the coming months - it will be too late for sensible spending of the money available to the country. By the end of June, the Polish government may present to the European Commission changes to the spending plan for the National Recovery Plan - completed with investments to increase resilience to the energy crisis. Consultations with the EC are just starting. This is the last bell for Poland to reach for loans and grants under the the Recovery and Resilience Facility and the REPowerEU plan. How to change the Polish NRP to make it a practical response to the energy crisis?

The EU embargo on Russian fuels did not extend to natural gas (including LNG, liquefied natural gas) or LPG (liquefied petroleum gas). In 2022 alone, EU countries paid as much as 16 billion euros for Russian LNG, a record high. Poland did not import any LNG from Russia, however it is the largest importer of LPG in the entire EU. In 2022, Poland spent about 700 million euros on Russian LPG. In this article, Forum Energii will explain how to close the loopholes in the EU embargo on Russian resources to finally eliminate them from the EU market.

The energy crisis has highlighted imperfections in the EU power market. The current rules were created almost 30 years ago with the aim to incentivise large conventional power plants, but they now need to be adapted to new challenges.