The European Union needs a new energy security strategy that integrates the energy transition into the current geopolitical landscape and addresses key challenges. The Russian war against Ukraine, political changes in the United States, and significant international tensions serve as important signals for rethinking how to strenghten Europe's resilience to crises. As global dynamics continue to shift, a fresh strategic approach has become essential. Forum Energii, in collaboration with leading European experts, has published a report that outlines a new framework for ensuring a secure, resilient, and sustainable energy future for the EU. The report’s publication coincides with Poland’s Presidency of the EU Council which has set energy security as one of its priorities.

The Polish government is under pressure because of energy prices. The energy market in Poland is worth over PLN 200 billion annually and hosts many conflicting interests. The rules of this market, including price formation, are difficult to convey in political language. Energy price issues are ideal ground for disinformation, which in turn reduces motivation for the energy transition and leads to a piling of problems. In this analysis, we show how the Polish government can approach the issue of energy prices without blocking necessary reforms while protecting consumers from excessive costs. This analysis focuses on households.

Poland's energy sector is entering a phase of rapid transformation. The installed capacity of renewable energy sources (RES) has surpassed 30 GW, with renewable electricity generation reaching a record 30% in 2024. In the coming years, the role of solar power, onshore wind, and offshore wind is expected to grow rapidly. Improving the conditions for renewable energy development is a critical step toward lowering energy prices in Poland and maintaining industrial competitiveness. The new report by Forum Energii, titled “Polish Grids 2040,” outlines solutions to support further integration of renewable energy sources and energy storage into the power system. 

Over the next decades, Europe’s energy generation landscape will change significantly. Achieving climate neutrality means replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy sources within the next 30 years. Biomethane, which can replace the use of natural gas, will be one of the essential assets in this transition. A critical partner with significant potential for supporting biomethane usage in the EU is Ukraine. Despite facing challenges such as war and regulatory hurdles, Ukraine has substantial production capacity—up to 1 bcm by 2030 and as much as 22 bcm by 2050.  

The Polish industrial sector holds a well-established position within the European Union. As one of the largest industrial bases in Europe, it plays a crucial – albeit often upstream – role in the continent’s manufacturing value chain. However, this stable standing may face significant challenges in the near future, driven by rising fossil fuel energy costs and the substantial carbon footprint associated with industrial production. While the reduction of industrial emissions has become a central element in the broader European discourse on competitiveness, the topic remains conspicuously absent from discussions in Poland.

While industrial emissions reduction is a key focus in Europe’s competitiveness discussions, it is notably absent from Poland’s. This is significant given that industry accounts for 23% of Poland’s GDP, employs one in five workers, and generates a quarter of the country’s emissions and energy consumption. Forum Energii’s reports provide essential insights into Poland’s industrial landscape and available decarbonisation technologies.   

The capacity market is a system of public support to maintain dispatchable capacity in the Polish electricity system. It was introduced in 2018, with the approval of the European Commission, because coal-fired power plants were no longer making money for themselves. It could have initiated the creation of new dispatchable and flexible capacity, but after eight auctions so far, it is mainly old coal units that are benefiting. Now the capacity mechanism needs to be redesigned to give an impetus to new, flexible investments replacing coal. We present our take on how to organise a new capacity market in Poland. 

Polish coal regions are the largest beneficiary of the EU's Just Transition Fund. This is a new instrument of the Cohesion Policy, supporting the achievement of the EU's energy and climate goals between 2021 and 2027. However, the future of the Fund in the next EU budgetary perspective is uncertain. Its continuation should be one of the priorities for the Polish government, and the upcoming Polish presidency is a perfect time to discuss it with the European partners. In the meantime, while there are many ministries in Poland responsible for energy sector, there is virtually no one responsible for a just transition. What is there to lose?

From 1 January 2025, Poland will assume the presidency of the Council of the European Union and will have the opportunity to influence the direction and shape of EU policies for the next six months. This is an important moment in the history of the EU, geopolitical tensions are rising and expectations of Poland are high. Which areas in the field of energy and climate should become priorities during the Polish presidency? The keys for selecting the priorities are an analysis of where Poland has strong arguments supported by experience and determining what is likely to gain attention across the EU.

Compared to the energy system’s resources available before the Russian invasion, Ukraine now has only a quarter of its production capacity. Insufficient energy supplies mean that this winter many parts of Ukraine may be deprived of not only electricity but also heat and running water for significant portions of the day. Russia has consistently targeted and destroyed Ukrainian energy infrastructure to try to paralyse the economy and break the society’s will to defend against the Russian aggression and force the Kyiv authorities to capitulate to Russia on its terms. This report analyses the current state of the Ukrainian energy system and proposes solutions to reduce the risk of a humanitarian disaster in the country.